The post about tornadoes, written by Anthony Watts, starts with
While many climate alarmists still try to tell us that global warming will increase tornadoes, we are in the middle of a tornado drought, and well below normal.
My understanding is that this is not a typical claim made by climate scientists. As far as I’m aware, climate scientists are well aware that global warming increases the energy in the climate system, which might make events stronger, but can also reduce the shear that is necessary to produce tornadoes. I’m no expert at this, so maybe I’ve misunderstood something, but from what I’ve read there is no real claim that global warming will result in more tornadoes. At best it’s very uncertain.
The post about cyclones is based on a recent paper called Projected changes in late 21st century tropical cyclone frequency in thirteen coupled climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 by Tory et al. What’s ironic about this post is that the paper uses the CMIP5 climate models that are typically heavily criticised on WUWT. When Leif Svalgaard comments on this irony, Anthony feels that this is unfair and someone else comments
No, gaard, they are good when they correspond to reality, as in this case.
Really, a model prediction of something that hasn’t yet happened corresponds to reality?
Anyway, as far as I can tell, the paper only really considers Tropical Cyclones (high-latitide) and specifically removes any of a sub-tropical origin. It seems to be trying to address whether or not there will be more tropical cyclones (i.e., originating in the tropics) in a warming world, rather than whether or not there will be more cyclones in total. Also, the model they use (CMIP5) clearly predicts future warming and so it may be entirely reasonable that a warmer world will have fewer cyclones than we have today. That still qualifies as climate change as far as I can tell. Not everything has to be detrimental. I also can’t tell if it makes any prediction about the strength of cyclones in a warmer world.
I’ll be honest and admit that I don’t really know all that much about precisely how scientists expect the climate to change in a warmer world. It does seem to me that neither of the posts on WUWT really indicates anything particularly significant, especially as one of them relies on a paper that specifically addresses Tropical Cyclones in a warmer world. You can’t claim global warming isn’t happening and then use results from a paper which relies on models of global warming to claim that climate scientists are wrong.