I thought I would reblog this because it seems like a really clever illustration. In some sense, it’s another illustration of the escalator. Making a big deal of the “pause”/slowdown since 1998 essentially ignores that such a slowdown occurred immediately after a large jump in surface temperatures. Of course, if you start your analysis prior to 1998, the slowdown isn’t nearly as evident. I also liked the comment in the post that a lack of “statistically significant” warming is not the same as a lack of warming – something worth repeating.
Given how rapidly global temperature was rising prior to 1998, what’s the most surprising thing about global temperature since 1998?
Most who call themselves “skeptics” of global warming would probably say “No global warming since 1998!” Under the name “hiatus” or “pause,” it features prominently in public discussion and even in senate testimony (e.g. from Judith Curry). In truth, such a “pause” or “hiatus” is not that surprising, neither from a statistical point of view nor based on climate model output. But there is one thing about post-1998 temperatures, compared to the pre-1998 temperatures, that is quite a surprise.
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