I wasn’t going to write a whole post on this, but what I thought I would do is simply provide links to those that have.
- Doug’s McNeall’s blog.
- International Surface Temperature Initiative.
- BBC, with – IMO – a sensible comment from Piers Forster.
- John Abraham in the Guardian.
- Carbon Brief.
- Judith Curry.
I considered adding links to Bishop-Hill and WUWT, but decided that would be silly. If anyone wants to add any other non-silly ones through the comments, feel free to do so.
I’ll make a couple of comments (because I really can’t help myself 🙂 ). I’ve never liked the terms “pause” or “hiatus” because these terms have been used to imply that global warming has stopped. There are two problems with this; firstly these terms only refer to surface temperatures, not to overall warming – which clearly has not stopped – and – secondly – even when applied to surface temperatures, it’s – at best – a slowdown, rather than a genuine pause/hiatus. Scientifically, these are just terms, and most involved understood how they were being used. That, however, doesn’t mean that they weren’t mis-used by others.
I do also think that we should still be careful as to how we incorporate this new result. It is just one paper, so we have to be careful of single study syndrome. The other issue is that it’s clear that internal variability can significantly influence surface warming on timescales of a decade or so. We don’t expect surface temperatures to simply rise at a rate that increases monotonically. We expect some variability. The impact of variability over the last decade or so may turn out to be smaller than we’ve thought, but it’s unlikely that it will play no role on these timescales. I think it’s important to be able to present a coherent argument that incorporates the role of external forcings over long time intervals (many decades) and internal variability over shorter time intervals (decade or so).
Having said that, I do think that what Tamino’s post is presenting will be how we view this in future: it’s unlikely that in future we will look at the surface temperature data, and perceive the early part of the 21st century as having been a period where surface warming paused.