I guess there’s no point in writing a “possible told you so” post if you can’t then say “I told you so” when it actually comes about. I guess I was maybe out by a few months with respect to when the El Nino started, but still, I told you so.
There is increasing evidence to suggest that we may see an extreme El Nio event later this year, which could make 2015 the hottest year on record. Given that surface warming has slowed and we continue to accrue energy, most of which is going into the oceans, this seems like something that has to happen at some stage in the not too distant future. The oceans do have a large heat capacity, but they can’t accrue most of the excess energy for ever and – if our emissions are increasing the energy imbalance – they can’t accrue an ever increasing fraction of the excess. At some point surface warming will have to accelerate and a sudden large El Nio event is certainly one way in which this could happen.
I looked through some of my older posts to see if I had discussed this is any detail previously. I came…
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