I thought I would post this video of Glen Peters discussing the three years we’ve just had in which there has been near-zero growth in emissions. You can use a Kaya-like identity to try and understand what might be causing emissions to have stalled. What’s probably caused the near-zero growth in emissions is probably (in China in particular) a combination of a slowdown in GDP growth, an increase in energy efficiency (energy/GDP), and a reduction in the amount of CO2 released per unit of energy (a combination of switching from coal to gas and an increase in the use of renewables).
A key point in the talk is that these could all be signs that emissions might peak sooner than expected, but that this will require some kind policies to lock in. Also, achieving some kind of temperature target will also require emissions to actually reduce, not simpy stall. That will probably require increased deployment of renewables (which is apparently progressing about as well as can be expected) along with the deployment of some heavy-hitters, like nuclear and CCS (which are not progressing particular well). We can’t really say yet if emissions have acually peaked, but it’s at least a sign that it might happen sooner than we might have expected. Anyway, that’s all I need to say (probably more than I need to say).
Glen Peters’ post about this topic.