Search Results for: climate sensitivity

Narrowing the climate sensitivity range?

There have been a couple of recent papers presenting analyses that claim to have narrowed the likely range for equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). One is Dessler et al. (currently a discussion paper under review) which suggests that the 500hPa tropical … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Policy, Research, Science | Tagged , , , , | 150 Comments

Guest post: A ‘new’ measurement of climate sensitivity?

This is a guest post by Mark Richardson, who is currently a Caltech Postdoctoral Scholar at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Mark has a particular interest in the role of clouds in climate change. This post is a response to … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, The scientific method | Tagged , , , | 149 Comments

More about Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity

It’s currently the AGU Fall Meeting and there was a session on Climate sensitivity and feedbacks. It included talks by Kate Marvel and Kyle Armour, and I noticed that the Convener, Andrew Dessler, had tweeted This leads to one of … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Global warming, IPCC, Science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , | 34 Comments

Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity

Since I’ve written about climate sensitivity before, and since I have a few free moments, I thought I would briefly highlight a new paper by Knutti, Rugenstein, and Hegerl called Beyond Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity. It’s really a review of a … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Research, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

Reconciling climate sensitivity estimates – part III, or IV?

I mentioned in a recent post that there was a new paper that claims to reconciles climate sensitivity estimates. The basic issue is that observationally-based climate sensitivity estimates have a range of about 1.5oC to about 3oC, while climate model … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Research, Science, The philosophy of science | Tagged , , , , , | 94 Comments

A reduced climate sensitivity!

Now that I have your attention, I should probably make clear that this post is not about the Earth. I’m just back from a meeting where one of the speakers was Ian Boutle, lead author of a paper in which … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Research, Science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , | 14 Comments

Non-linear climate sensitivity

Rather strangely, the recent Science Advances paper Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming, that’s been getting some attention recently, made it into our Journal Club today (and it had nothing to do with me). It’s, consequently, … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall | Tagged , , , , | 131 Comments

Climate Sensitivity on the Rise

There’s a Nature news & views article by Kyle Armour called Projection and prediction: Climate sensitivity on the rise. It discusses various analyses that indicate that simple energy balance methods tend to under-estimate climate sensitivity. Normally, I would write a … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Science | Tagged , , , , , | 100 Comments

Climate sensitivity reconciled?

There’s a really interesting paper by Mark Richardson, Kevin Cowtan, Ed Hawkins, and Martin Stolpe called Reconciled climate response estimates from climate models and the energy budget of Earth. Ed already has post that explains it all very clearly, so … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Science | Tagged , , , , , , | 109 Comments

Bayesian estimates of climate sensitivity

Thanks to Bill Shockley I’ve been made aware of new paper by James Annan about recent developments in Bayesian estimation of climate sensitivity. It covers many things I’ve been wondering about, so I found it very interesting. I don’t need … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, IPCC, Science | Tagged , , , , , | 369 Comments