Author Archives: ...and Then There's Physics

Climate Change – The Facts

I watched BBC One’s Climate Change – The Facts, narrated by David Attenborough. A pity about the title, as it’s the same as a book with authors that include Anthony Watts, Nigel Lawson and James Delingpole, but I thought it … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, ClimateBall, Global warming, Scientists, Watts Up With That | Tagged , , , , , | 47 Comments

Six years

I’ve just been reminded by WordPress that this is the sixth anniversary of me starting this blog. I’m somewhat amazed that I’ve kept it going that long. I am, however, finding it more and more difficult to find things to … Continue reading

Posted in ClimateBall, Interview, Personal, Philosophy for Bloggers | Tagged , , , | 107 Comments

Post-normal science

I’ve been reading a paper by Daniel Sarewitz, that was being highlighted by Jane Flegal on Twitter. The paper is called Of Cold Mice and Isotopes Or Should We Do Less Science? There’s quite a lot that could be said … Continue reading

Posted in Policy, Politics, Research, Science, Scientists, The philosophy of science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , | 125 Comments

Models and scenarios

I was following, or trying to, a Twitter discussion about models and scenarios. It was – I think – about models that forescast technology development, and you can find it here if you’re interested. I didn’t entirely follow it, but … Continue reading

Posted in economics, Research, Science | Tagged , , , | 14 Comments

Existential threat?

I had a discussion with someone recently who asked if climate change really was an existential threat for humans. I responded that it wasn’t. However, I added that this didn’t mean that it couldn’t be severely disruptive or that it … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, economics | Tagged , , , , | 87 Comments

An updated Bayesian climate sensitivity estimate

I thought I would update my Bayesian climate sensitivity estimate, given the comments I received (peer-review in action). Based on James’s comment, I’ve removed the noise term and am now using the aerosol forcing as the forcing uncertainty. Based on … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Research, Science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 40 Comments

An attempt to do a Bayesian estimate of climate sensitivity

Update (02/04/2019): I’ve updated this in a new post. The updated result suggests a slightly lower climate sensitivity and a narrower range. The main difference is – I think – how I was handling the forcing uncertainty. In this post, … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Research | Tagged , , , , , , , | 50 Comments