Category Archives: Climate sensitivity

Models are failed hypotheses!

John Christy has written a report for the Global Warming Policy Foundation called climate models have been predicting too much warming. The basic conclusion of the report is that climate models predict far more warming in the tropical troposphere than … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Global warming, Greenhouse effect | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 60 Comments

An updated Bayesian climate sensitivity estimate

I thought I would update my Bayesian climate sensitivity estimate, given the comments I received (peer-review in action). Based on James’s comment, I’ve removed the noise term and am now using the aerosol forcing as the forcing uncertainty. Based on … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Research, Science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 40 Comments

An attempt to do a Bayesian estimate of climate sensitivity

Update (02/04/2019): I’ve updated this in a new post. The updated result suggests a slightly lower climate sensitivity and a narrower range. The main difference is – I think – how I was handling the forcing uncertainty. In this post, … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Research | Tagged , , , , , , , | 50 Comments

The Hawkmoth Effect

I’ve been down to the University of Warwick to give a seminar, and was reading Eric Winsberg’s book on the train. Eric was interviewed by Willard for the previous post and his book is about Philosophy and Climate Science. I’m … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Research, Sound Science (tm), The philosophy of science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , , | 209 Comments

Early 20th century warming

I’ve noticed that Judith Curry is discussing the early twentieth century warming. The idea is that there was a period of warming during the early twentieth century that was similar to the warming we’ve experienced since the second half of … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Judith Curry, Pseudoscience | Tagged , , , , | 34 Comments

2018: A year in review

Well, it’s the end of another year, so I should probably do a round-up of what’s happened on the blog. The blog seems to be ticking along quite well, but I still don’t really know what I’m doing; I just … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Environmental change, Personal | Tagged , , , | 11 Comments

There was no “pause” in global warming!

There are a couple of new papers that essentially analyse the various analyses of the supposed “pause” in global warming. One, lead by James Risbey considers fluctuation[s] in surface temperature in historical context: reassessment and retrospective on the evidence. The … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Gavin Schmidt, IPCC, Policy, Research, The philosophy of science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , | 292 Comments