Category Archives: Climate sensitivity

An updated Bayesian climate sensitivity estimate

I thought I would update my Bayesian climate sensitivity estimate, given the comments I received (peer-review in action). Based on James’s comment, I’ve removed the noise term and am now using the aerosol forcing as the forcing uncertainty. Based on … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Research, Science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 40 Comments

An attempt to do a Bayesian estimate of climate sensitivity

Update (02/04/2019): I’ve updated this in a new post. The updated result suggests a slightly lower climate sensitivity and a narrower range. The main difference is – I think – how I was handling the forcing uncertainty. In this post, … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Research | Tagged , , , , , , , | 50 Comments

The Hawkmoth Effect

I’ve been down to the University of Warwick to give a seminar, and was reading Eric Winsberg’s book on the train. Eric was interviewed by Willard for the previous post and his book is about Philosophy and Climate Science. I’m … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Research, Sound Science (tm), The philosophy of science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , , | 208 Comments

Early 20th century warming

I’ve noticed that Judith Curry is discussing the early twentieth century warming. The idea is that there was a period of warming during the early twentieth century that was similar to the warming we’ve experienced since the second half of … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Judith Curry, Pseudoscience | Tagged , , , , | 34 Comments

2018: A year in review

Well, it’s the end of another year, so I should probably do a round-up of what’s happened on the blog. The blog seems to be ticking along quite well, but I still don’t really know what I’m doing; I just … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Environmental change, Personal | Tagged , , , | 11 Comments

There was no “pause” in global warming!

There are a couple of new papers that essentially analyse the various analyses of the supposed “pause” in global warming. One, lead by James Risbey considers fluctuation[s] in surface temperature in historical context: reassessment and retrospective on the evidence. The … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Gavin Schmidt, IPCC, Policy, Research, The philosophy of science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , | 292 Comments

New ocean heat content analysis

I wanted to just briefly mention the recent paper that [quantifies] ocean heat uptake from changes in atmospheric O2 and CO2 composition, by Resplandy et al. The interesting thing about this paper is that it uses proxies to infer the … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Policy, Research | Tagged , , , , , , | 183 Comments