Category Archives: Climate sensitivity

High emission scenarios

Posted on August 23, 2019 by

I thought I might briefly reflect, again, on the whole RCP8.5 discussion. In case anyone missed it, there has been a lengthy online discussion about RCP8.5, which is a concentration/forcing pathway that leads to a change in forcing of 8.5 … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Severe Events | Tagged , , , , , | 62 Comments

A little knowledge

Posted on August 7, 2019 by

There is apparently a paper from a couple of years ago that is currently doing the rounds and that argues that the Molar Mass Version of the Ideal Gas Law Points to a Very Low Climate Sensitivity. The suggestion is … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Greenhouse effect, Pseudoscience, Science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , | 26 Comments

Climate sensitivity and decadal temperature variability

Posted on July 28, 2019 by

There are some who argue that natural/internal variability can play a role in driving long-term warming, and – hence – could explain a substantial fraction of recent warming. This, however, creates a bit of a paradox; if the system responds … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Research, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , | 80 Comments

Kooninisms

Posted on June 18, 2019 by

Gavin Schmidt has a Realclimate post about a recent talk given by Steve Koonin. Somewhat bizarrely, Koonin has a response to Gavin’s post that he has posted on WUWT. Given that Koonin has no climate expertise, presumably he thinks that … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, physicists, Scientists, The scientific method, Watts Up With That | Tagged , , , , , , | 201 Comments

Models are failed hypotheses!

Posted on May 25, 2019 by

John Christy has written a report for the Global Warming Policy Foundation called climate models have been predicting too much warming. The basic conclusion of the report is that climate models predict far more warming in the tropical troposphere than … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Global warming, Greenhouse effect | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 60 Comments

An updated Bayesian climate sensitivity estimate

Posted on March 31, 2019 by

I thought I would update my Bayesian climate sensitivity estimate, given the comments I received (peer-review in action). Based on James’s comment, I’ve removed the noise term and am now using the aerosol forcing as the forcing uncertainty. Based on … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Research, Science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 40 Comments

An attempt to do a Bayesian estimate of climate sensitivity

Posted on March 25, 2019 by

Update (02/04/2019): I’ve updated this in a new post. The updated result suggests a slightly lower climate sensitivity and a narrower range. The main difference is – I think – how I was handling the forcing uncertainty. In this post, … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Research | Tagged , , , , , , , | 50 Comments