Category Archives: Climate sensitivity

Warming commitments

Posted on January 8, 2021 by ...and Then There's Physics

There’s been quite a lot of recent discussion about warming commitments. It started with an article by Bob Berwyn called Net Zero Emissions Would Stabilize Climate Quickly Says UK Scientist, followed soon after by one saying [w]arming already baked in … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Research | Tagged , , , , , , | 38 Comments

Climate sensitivity – narrowing the range

Posted on July 22, 2020 by ...and Then There's Physics

Since I’ve discussed climate sensitivity on a number of occasions, it seems worth highlighting the new paper that assesses climate sensitivity using multiple lines of evidence. The authors include many who will be familiar to my regular readers. The key … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Philosophy for Bloggers, Research, Science | Tagged , , , , , | 98 Comments

Can climate sensitivity be really high?

Posted on June 13, 2020 by ...and Then There's Physics

The answer to the question in my post title is – unfortunately – yes. The generally accepted likely range for equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is 2oC – 4.5oC. This doesn’t mean that it has to fall within this range, it … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Research, Science, The philosophy of science | Tagged , , , , | 36 Comments

Mitigation, adaptation, suffering

Posted on June 6, 2020 by ...and Then There's Physics

I’ve been struggling, more than usual, to find things to write about. Everything seems to just be a bit of a mess. The pandemic itself, how it’s been handled in some cases, and the protests in the USA, especially how … Continue reading →

Posted in advocacy, Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Philosophy for Bloggers | Tagged , , | 41 Comments

A couple of highlights

Posted on March 8, 2020 by ...and Then There's Physics

Since I haven’t had much chance to write anything recently, I thought I would briefly advertise a couple of papers that may be of interest to my regular readers. One is by Clare Marie Flynn and Thorsten Mauritsen and is … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Research, Science | Tagged , , , , | 19 Comments

Debate about communicating tipping points

Posted on February 23, 2020 by ...and Then There's Physics

The new book about Contemporary Climate Change Debates, that I discussed in this post, includes a debate about whether or not ‘tipping point[s]’ [are] helpful for describing and communicating possible climate futures? James Annan suggests that the answer is “no”, … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Policy, The philosophy of science, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , | 340 Comments

feedbacks, runaway, and tipping points

Posted on February 1, 2020 by ...and Then There's Physics

There’s been some discussion on Twitter about feedbacks, runaways, and tipping points. The issue is that some seem to confuse these and sometimes imply that we could cross thresholds where we’ll undergo a runaway. I thought I would briefly try … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Severe Events, The scientific method, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , | 214 Comments

Another CMIP6 climate sensitivity constraint

Posted on January 6, 2020 by ...and Then There's Physics

I thought I would follow up yesterday’s post with one that highlights another paper that looks at CMIP6 climate sensitivity. It’s a paper by Femke Nijsse, and colleagues, and considers [a]n emergent constraint on Transient Climate Response from simulated historical … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Philosophy for Bloggers, Research, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 139 Comments

Climate sensitivity in CMIP6 GCMs

Posted on January 5, 2020 by ...and Then There's Physics

Anyone who is aware of what’s going on in climate science should have heard that the latest generation of climate models, known as CMIP6, seem to be suggesting a somewhat higher climate sensitivity than suggested by the previous CMIP5 models. … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Gavin Schmidt, Research, Scientists, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , , | 63 Comments

Different perspectives

Posted on December 7, 2019 by ...and Then There's Physics

I’ve been reflecting a little on some of the recent discussions I’ve had, mostly on Twitter, with those who have more expertise in emission scenarios, and energy systems, than in physical climate science specifically. I’ve found it a somewhat frustrating … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Philosophy for Bloggers, Policy, Scientists, The philosophy of science | Tagged , , , , , | 147 Comments