Category Archives: Climate sensitivity

Another CMIP6 climate sensitivity constraint

Posted on January 6, 2020 by

I thought I would follow up yesterday’s post with one that highlights another paper that looks at CMIP6 climate sensitivity. It’s a paper by Femke Nijsse, and colleagues, and considers [a]n emergent constraint on Transient Climate Response from simulated historical … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Philosophy for Bloggers, Research, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 137 Comments

Climate sensitivity in CMIP6 GCMs

Posted on January 5, 2020 by

Anyone who is aware of what’s going on in climate science should have heard that the latest generation of climate models, known as CMIP6, seem to be suggesting a somewhat higher climate sensitivity than suggested by the previous CMIP5 models. … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Gavin Schmidt, Research, Scientists, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , , | 61 Comments

Different perspectives

Posted on December 7, 2019 by

I’ve been reflecting a little on some of the recent discussions I’ve had, mostly on Twitter, with those who have more expertise in emission scenarios, and energy systems, than in physical climate science specifically. I’ve found it a somewhat frustrating … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Philosophy for Bloggers, Policy, Scientists, The philosophy of science | Tagged , , , , , | 147 Comments

Worst case scenarios, or not?

Posted on October 6, 2019 by

I’ve been thinking a bit more about the debate around high emission scenarios, which I found rather frustrating. I think it’s an important issue, but the manner in which some people choose to frame this does make it difficult to … Continue reading →

Posted in Carbon tax, Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall | Tagged , , , , , | 47 Comments

Propagation of nonsense – part II

Posted on September 10, 2019 by

I thought I would look again at Pat Frank’s paper that we discussed in the previous post. Essentially Pat Frank argues that the surface temperature evolution under a change in forcing can be described as where is an enhancement factor … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, physicists, Research, Satire, Scientists | Tagged , , , , | 123 Comments

Constraining unforced variability

Posted on September 5, 2019 by

Pages 2k has a new Nature paper called Consistent multidecadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era. What they do is present 2,000-year-long global mean temperature reconstructions using seven different statistical methods that draw from a … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Research, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , | 8 Comments

High emission scenarios

Posted on August 23, 2019 by

I thought I might briefly reflect, again, on the whole RCP8.5 discussion. In case anyone missed it, there has been a lengthy online discussion about RCP8.5, which is a concentration/forcing pathway that leads to a change in forcing of 8.5 … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Severe Events | Tagged , , , , , | 133 Comments