Category Archives: Severe Events

Extreme event attribution and the nature-culture duality

I’ve been reading a paper by Shannon Osaka and Rob Bellamy called Weather in the Anthropocene: Extreme event attribution and a modelled nature–culture divide. I’ve written about event attribution before, and I’m largely in favour of the storyline approach; given … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Environmental change, Global warming, Philosophy for Bloggers, Severe Events, The philosophy of science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , | 138 Comments

feedbacks, runaway, and tipping points

There’s been some discussion on Twitter about feedbacks, runaways, and tipping points. The issue is that some seem to confuse these and sometimes imply that we could cross thresholds where we’ll undergo a runaway. I thought I would briefly try … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Severe Events, The scientific method, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , | 213 Comments

Tipping points/elements

There has been quite lot of discussion recently about climate tipping points, or tipping elements. It’s mostly motivated by a recent Nature comment suggesting that Climate tipping points [are] too risky to bet against. The suggestion is that some the … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Global warming, Philosophy for Bloggers, Policy, Severe Events | Tagged , , , , , , | 249 Comments

Societal tipping points

Noami Oreskes and Nicholas Stern have a New York Times Opinion piece called Climate Change will cost us even more than we think. Some are very critical, others are a little more circumspect. I, on the other hand, think that … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, economics, Global warming, Policy, Politics, Severe Events | Tagged , , , , | 172 Comments

High emission scenarios

I thought I might briefly reflect, again, on the whole RCP8.5 discussion. In case anyone missed it, there has been a lengthy online discussion about RCP8.5, which is a concentration/forcing pathway that leads to a change in forcing of 8.5 … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Severe Events | Tagged , , , , , | 133 Comments

The benefits of acting now, rather than later

This is a post that I’ve been thinking about for a while, but have been somewhat reluctant to actually write. This is partly because maybe I’m wrong, partly because it is clearly going to be a bit too simplistic, and … Continue reading

Posted in Carbon tax, Climate change, Environmental change, ethics, Policy, Science, Severe Events | Tagged , , , , | 175 Comments

Hurricanes and carbon cuts

I was wanting to quickly comment on a recent Bjorn Lomborg article in the New York Post called No, global warming isn’t causing worse hurricanes. It’s mainly a response to another article in the New York Post called Climate change … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, ClimateBall, Policy, Severe Events | Tagged , , , , , , | 29 Comments

Linking climate change and extreme events

There’s an article in the New Republic called the media’s failure to connext the dots on climate change. I actually came across it via a blog post by Matthew Nisbet in which he argues that [Why] The New Republic is … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, ClimateBall, Environmental change, Global warming, IPCC, physicists, Policy, Severe Events | Tagged , , , | 48 Comments

low-probability, high-impact outcomes

There’s an interesting Earth System Dynamics Discussion paper presenting a a simple proposal to improve the contribution of IPCC WG1 to the assessment and communication of climate change risks. Essentially, one can estimate the risk of some outcome by considering … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, IPCC, Scientists, Severe Events | Tagged , , , , , , | 277 Comments

Extreme events and anthropogenic emissions

This is a post that I’ve been thinking of writing, but have been somewhat reluctant to start. It’s mostly because it relates to something said by Roger Pielke Jr, so could end up being a bit of same ‘ol same … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, ClimateBall, Global warming, Policy, Roger Pielke Jr, Severe Events | Tagged , , , | 105 Comments