Category Archives: The philosophy of science

A modelling manifesto?

There’s a recent Nature comment lead by Andrea Saltelli called Five ways to ensure that models serve society: a manifesto. Gavin Schmnidt has already posted a Twitter thread about it. I largerly agree with Gavin’s points and thought I would … Continue reading

Posted in ClimateBall, Philosophy for Bloggers, Research, Scientists, Sound Science (tm), The philosophy of science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , | 73 Comments

Extreme event attribution and the nature-culture duality

I’ve been reading a paper by Shannon Osaka and Rob Bellamy called Weather in the Anthropocene: Extreme event attribution and a modelled nature–culture divide. I’ve written about event attribution before, and I’m largely in favour of the storyline approach; given … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Environmental change, Global warming, Philosophy for Bloggers, Severe Events, The philosophy of science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , | 138 Comments

Can climate sensitivity be really high?

The answer to the question in my post title is – unfortunately – yes. The generally accepted likely range for equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is 2oC – 4.5oC. This doesn’t mean that it has to fall within this range, it … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Research, Science, The philosophy of science | Tagged , , , , | 36 Comments

Outgoing longwave radiation

Something that often strikes me is that when I think I understand something quite well, there often turns out to be an aspect that I haven’t understood particularly well. I sometimes think that this is can be an important thing … Continue reading

Posted in Global warming, Greenhouse effect, Philosophy for Bloggers, The philosophy of science, The scientific method, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 37 Comments

Scenario use in climate research

If you’ve been following the blog for a while, you will be aware that I’ve commented on a number of occasions about the whole RCP8.5 issue. You may also be aware that one of the chief protagonists in that whole … Continue reading

Posted in ClimateBall, Contrarian Matrix, Philosophy for Bloggers, Roger Pielke Jr, Scientists, The philosophy of science | Tagged , , , , , | 44 Comments

Models

I have a feeling that our response to this pandemic may lead to some reflections on the role of scientific models in the decision making process. I would normally err on the side of defending scientific advisors, but I have … Continue reading

Posted in Philosophy for Bloggers, Research, Scientists, The philosophy of science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , | 461 Comments

Stay in your own lane?

Even though there are scientists who have the kind of expertise that might help us to better understand this pandemic, there’s a tendency to suggest that it would probably be best if they stayed in their own lane. Although I … Continue reading

Posted in Contrarian Matrix, Philosophy for Bloggers, Scientists, The philosophy of science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , | 250 Comments

Sometimes it’s never good enough

I’ve, in the past, suggested that climate scientists could end up being criticised whatever happens. If the impact of climate change ends up being less severe than it could have been, climate scientists will probably be criticised for being alarmists. … Continue reading

Posted in Philosophy for Bloggers, Policy, Politics, Scientists, The philosophy of science | Tagged , , , , , | 105 Comments

Responsible SciComm

Yesterday, a group in Oxford released a paper that implied that a signifcant fraction of those in the UK may already have been infected. This was quickly picked up by numerous media outlets who highlighted that coronavirus could already have … Continue reading

Posted in Scientists, The philosophy of science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , | 114 Comments

Some thoughts about science advice

I hope everyone is keeping well and listening to all the advice which, in the UK, is basically to stay at home and to only go outside for food, some exercise, or to go to work (where this cannot be … Continue reading

Posted in Philosophy for Bloggers, Policy, Science, Scientists, The philosophy of science | Tagged , , , | 70 Comments