Tag Archives: attribution

Extreme weather event attribution

This is a joint post between myself and Eric Winsberg, Professor of Philosophy at the University of South Florida. Eric has just published, together with Naomi Oreskes and Elisabeth Lloyd, a paper called Severe Weather Event Attribution: Why values won’t … Continue reading

Posted in advocacy, Climate change, Research, Science, The philosophy of science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , , | 183 Comments

Early 20th century warming

I’ve noticed that Judith Curry is discussing the early twentieth century warming. The idea is that there was a period of warming during the early twentieth century that was similar to the warming we’ve experienced since the second half of … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Judith Curry, Pseudoscience | Tagged , , , , | 34 Comments

Disasters and Climate Change – part 2

Since I have a bit of free time, I thought I would expand a little on my Review of Roger Pielke Jr’s book about Disasters and Climate Change. As I mentioned in my earlier post, there were a number of … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, ClimateBall, Policy, Roger Pielke Jr | Tagged , , , | 76 Comments

The attribution question

It seems as though the issue of trying to attribute an anthropogenic influence to an extreme weather event is controversial on a number of levels. It sometimes seems to divide even those who largely agree, and almost always produces a … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Research, Science | Tagged , , , , , , | 112 Comments


Given the extreme precipitation and flooding that’s been experienced in some parts of the world recently, I thought I would comment briefly on the issue of attribution. Clearly the El Niño has played an important role in these extreme weather … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, ENSO, Global warming, Science | Tagged , , , , , | 64 Comments

If I Had Ever Been Here Before I Would Probably Know Just What To Do

An argument preferring recurrence questions to attribution questions We have had a very severe weather event in South Carolina. As I write it is still an extremely serious situation. Before taking off onto the science and implications, it is worth taking … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Watts Up With That | Tagged , | 104 Comments

“very likely” versus “extremely likely”

In IPCC land “very likely” means 90% – 100% probability, while extremely likely means 95% – 100% probability. In light of that, I was wondering if anyone had any insights as to why, in Chapter 10 of the IPCC’s WGI … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, ClimateBall, Global warming, IPCC, Science | Tagged , , , , | 21 Comments