Tag Archives: attribution

The attribution question

It seems as though the issue of trying to attribute an anthropogenic influence to an extreme weather event is controversial on a number of levels. It sometimes seems to divide even those who largely agree, and almost always produces a … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Research, Science | Tagged , , , , , , | 112 Comments

Attribution

Given the extreme precipitation and flooding that’s been experienced in some parts of the world recently, I thought I would comment briefly on the issue of attribution. Clearly the El Niño has played an important role in these extreme weather … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, ENSO, Global warming, Science | Tagged , , , , , | 64 Comments

If I Had Ever Been Here Before I Would Probably Know Just What To Do

An argument preferring recurrence questions to attribution questions We have had a very severe weather event in South Carolina. As I write it is still an extremely serious situation. Before taking off onto the science and implications, it is worth taking … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Watts Up With That | Tagged , | 104 Comments

“very likely” versus “extremely likely”

In IPCC land “very likely” means 90% – 100% probability, while extremely likely means 95% – 100% probability. In light of that, I was wondering if anyone had any insights as to why, in Chapter 10 of the IPCC’s WGI … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, ClimateBall, Global warming, IPCC, Science | Tagged , , , , | 21 Comments

95%, attribution, and all that!

The latest critique of consensus studies is an attempt to re-analyse the data from Verheggen et al. (2014) to suggest that the consensus amongst climate scientists is only 47%, not 97%. I only have two things to say about this. … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Global warming, IPCC, Science | Tagged , , , , , , , | 48 Comments

Climate change by numbers

I watched the much-hyped BBC4 show climate change by numbers and thought it was pretty good. It covered 3 basic numbers; why we think global surface temperatures have risen by 0.85oC since 1880, why we’re 95% (or more) sure that … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Science | Tagged , , , , , , , | 185 Comments

“More than half” is the same as “> 50%”!

A while ago Judith Curry wrote a rather confusing post about the IPCC’s attribution statement (that more than 50% of the warming since 1950 was anthropogenic). Gavin Schmidt responded on RealClimate, and Judith Curry has been promising to respond to … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Comedy, IPCC, Judith Curry | Tagged , , , , , , , | 69 Comments