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Tag Archives: attribution
Extreme weather event attribution
This is a joint post between myself and Eric Winsberg, Professor of Philosophy at the University of South Florida. Eric has just published, together with Naomi Oreskes and Elisabeth Lloyd, a paper called Severe Weather Event Attribution: Why values won’t … Continue reading
Early 20th century warming
I’ve noticed that Judith Curry is discussing the early twentieth century warming. The idea is that there was a period of warming during the early twentieth century that was similar to the warming we’ve experienced since the second half of … Continue reading
Disasters and Climate Change – part 2
Since I have a bit of free time, I thought I would expand a little on my Review of Roger Pielke Jr’s book about Disasters and Climate Change. As I mentioned in my earlier post, there were a number of … Continue reading
Posted in Climate change, ClimateBall, Policy, Roger Pielke Jr
Tagged anthropogenic emissions, attribution, Extreme events, Patrick Brown
76 Comments
The attribution question
It seems as though the issue of trying to attribute an anthropogenic influence to an extreme weather event is controversial on a number of levels. It sometimes seems to divide even those who largely agree, and almost always produces a … Continue reading
Attribution
Given the extreme precipitation and flooding that’s been experienced in some parts of the world recently, I thought I would comment briefly on the issue of attribution. Clearly the El Niño has played an important role in these extreme weather … Continue reading
Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, ENSO, Global warming, Science
Tagged attribution, Climate change, El Niño, Extreme events, Extreme precipitation, Flooding
64 Comments
If I Had Ever Been Here Before I Would Probably Know Just What To Do
An argument preferring recurrence questions to attribution questions We have had a very severe weather event in South Carolina. As I write it is still an extremely serious situation. Before taking off onto the science and implications, it is worth taking … Continue reading
“very likely” versus “extremely likely”
In IPCC land “very likely” means 90% – 100% probability, while extremely likely means 95% – 100% probability. In light of that, I was wondering if anyone had any insights as to why, in Chapter 10 of the IPCC’s WGI … Continue reading
Posted in Climate change, ClimateBall, Global warming, IPCC, Science
Tagged Anthropogenic influences, attribution, Fabius Maximus, GHGs, IPCC
21 Comments
Climate change by numbers
I watched the much-hyped BBC4 show climate change by numbers and thought it was pretty good. It covered 3 basic numbers; why we think global surface temperatures have risen by 0.85oC since 1880, why we’re 95% (or more) sure that … Continue reading
“More than half” is the same as “> 50%”!
A while ago Judith Curry wrote a rather confusing post about the IPCC’s attribution statement (that more than 50% of the warming since 1950 was anthropogenic). Gavin Schmidt responded on RealClimate, and Judith Curry has been promising to respond to … Continue reading
