Tag Archives: attribution

Extreme weather event attribution

Posted on June 11, 2019 by ...and Then There's Physics

This is a joint post between myself and Eric Winsberg, Professor of Philosophy at the University of South Florida. Eric has just published, together with Naomi Oreskes and Elisabeth Lloyd, a paper called Severe Weather Event Attribution: Why values won’t … Continue reading →

Posted in advocacy, Climate change, Research, Science, The philosophy of science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , , | 184 Comments

Early 20th century warming

Posted on January 26, 2019 by ...and Then There's Physics

I’ve noticed that Judith Curry is discussing the early twentieth century warming. The idea is that there was a period of warming during the early twentieth century that was similar to the warming we’ve experienced since the second half of … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Judith Curry, Pseudoscience | Tagged , , , , | 34 Comments

Disasters and Climate Change – part 2

Posted on September 12, 2018 by ...and Then There's Physics

Since I have a bit of free time, I thought I would expand a little on my Review of Roger Pielke Jr’s book about Disasters and Climate Change. As I mentioned in my earlier post, there were a number of … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, ClimateBall, Policy, Roger Pielke Jr | Tagged , , , | 76 Comments

The attribution question

Posted on September 10, 2016 by ...and Then There's Physics

It seems as though the issue of trying to attribute an anthropogenic influence to an extreme weather event is controversial on a number of levels. It sometimes seems to divide even those who largely agree, and almost always produces a … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Research, Science | Tagged , , , , , , | 113 Comments

Attribution

Posted on January 3, 2016 by ...and Then There's Physics

Given the extreme precipitation and flooding that’s been experienced in some parts of the world recently, I thought I would comment briefly on the issue of attribution. Clearly the El Niño has played an important role in these extreme weather … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, ENSO, Global warming, Science | Tagged , , , , , | 64 Comments

If I Had Ever Been Here Before I Would Probably Know Just What To Do

Posted on October 7, 2015 by mt

An argument preferring recurrence questions to attribution questions We have had a very severe weather event in South Carolina. As I write it is still an extremely serious situation. Before taking off onto the science and implications, it is worth taking … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Watts Up With That | Tagged , | 104 Comments

“very likely” versus “extremely likely”

Posted on August 18, 2015 by ...and Then There's Physics

In IPCC land “very likely” means 90% – 100% probability, while extremely likely means 95% – 100% probability. In light of that, I was wondering if anyone had any insights as to why, in Chapter 10 of the IPCC’s WGI … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, ClimateBall, Global warming, IPCC, Science | Tagged , , , , | 21 Comments

95%, attribution, and all that!

Posted on August 2, 2015 by ...and Then There's Physics

The latest critique of consensus studies is an attempt to re-analyse the data from Verheggen et al. (2014) to suggest that the consensus amongst climate scientists is only 47%, not 97%. I only have two things to say about this. … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Global warming, IPCC, Science | Tagged , , , , , , , | 49 Comments

Climate change by numbers

Posted on March 3, 2015 by ...and Then There's Physics

I watched the much-hyped BBC4 show climate change by numbers and thought it was pretty good. It covered 3 basic numbers; why we think global surface temperatures have risen by 0.85oC since 1880, why we’re 95% (or more) sure that … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Science | Tagged , , , , , , , | 185 Comments

“More than half” is the same as “> 50%”!

Posted on January 20, 2015 by ...and Then There's Physics

A while ago Judith Curry wrote a rather confusing post about the IPCC’s attribution statement (that more than 50% of the warming since 1950 was anthropogenic). Gavin Schmidt responded on RealClimate, and Judith Curry has been promising to respond to … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Comedy, IPCC, Judith Curry | Tagged , , , , , , , | 69 Comments