Tag Archives: CMIP5

Climate sensitivity in CMIP6 GCMs

Anyone who is aware of what’s going on in climate science should have heard that the latest generation of climate models, known as CMIP6, seem to be suggesting a somewhat higher climate sensitivity than suggested by the previous CMIP5 models. … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Gavin Schmidt, Research, Scientists, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , , | 63 Comments

An updated Bayesian climate sensitivity estimate

I thought I would update my Bayesian climate sensitivity estimate, given the comments I received (peer-review in action). Based on James’s comment, I’ve removed the noise term and am now using the aerosol forcing as the forcing uncertainty. Based on … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Research, Science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 43 Comments

Messing about with model-obs comparisons

I was just messing about with some model-observation comparisons and just thought I would post some of the results. I don’t claim that I’ve done these properly, so use with care. I will, however, explain what I did, so that … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, ClimateBall, Global warming, Science | Tagged , , , , , | 37 Comments

Full-depth OHC

Since my holiday is now over, I thought I might briefly comment on a recent paper by Cheng et al., called Observed and simulated full-depth ocean heat-content changes for 1970–2005. John Abraham, one of the authors, has already discussed it … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Research, Science | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 39 Comments

Understanding the “pause”

I thought I might briefly highlight a recent paper that tries to understand what some call “the pause”, but which isn’t really a “pause” as nothing has actually stopped. The paper is Natural variability, radiative forcing and climate response in … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ENSO, Global warming, Science | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 181 Comments

Watt about Bob?

Bob Tisdale has contributed a post to Watts Up With That in which he does a Model-Data analysis with trend maps. What he is discussing is a comparison of the GISSTEMP temperature anomalies with the CMIP5 model. The figure (credit: … Continue reading

Posted in Bob Tisdale, Climate change, Global warming, Watts Up With That | Tagged , , , , , , , | 12 Comments