Tag Archives: CMIP5

An updated Bayesian climate sensitivity estimate

I thought I would update my Bayesian climate sensitivity estimate, given the comments I received (peer-review in action). Based on James’s comment, I’ve removed the noise term and am now using the aerosol forcing as the forcing uncertainty. Based on … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Research, Science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 40 Comments

Messing about with model-obs comparisons

I was just messing about with some model-observation comparisons and just thought I would post some of the results. I don’t claim that I’ve done these properly, so use with care. I will, however, explain what I did, so that … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, ClimateBall, Global warming, Science | Tagged , , , , , | 37 Comments

Full-depth OHC

Since my holiday is now over, I thought I might briefly comment on a recent paper by Cheng et al., called Observed and simulated full-depth ocean heat-content changes for 1970–2005. John Abraham, one of the authors, has already discussed it … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Research, Science | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 39 Comments

Understanding the “pause”

I thought I might briefly highlight a recent paper that tries to understand what some call “the pause”, but which isn’t really a “pause” as nothing has actually stopped. The paper is Natural variability, radiative forcing and climate response in … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ENSO, Global warming, Science | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 181 Comments

Watt about Bob?

Bob Tisdale has contributed a post to Watts Up With That in which he does a Model-Data analysis with trend maps. What he is discussing is a comparison of the GISSTEMP temperature anomalies with the CMIP5 model. The figure (credit: … Continue reading

Posted in Bob Tisdale, Climate change, Global warming, Watts Up With That | Tagged , , , , , , , | 12 Comments