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Tag Archives: Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity
Climate sensitivity – narrowing the range
Since I’ve discussed climate sensitivity on a number of occasions, it seems worth highlighting the new paper that assesses climate sensitivity using multiple lines of evidence. The authors include many who will be familiar to my regular readers. The key … Continue reading
Can climate sensitivity be really high?
The answer to the question in my post title is – unfortunately – yes. The generally accepted likely range for equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is 2oC – 4.5oC. This doesn’t mean that it has to fall within this range, it … Continue reading
Climate sensitivity in CMIP6 GCMs
Anyone who is aware of what’s going on in climate science should have heard that the latest generation of climate models, known as CMIP6, seem to be suggesting a somewhat higher climate sensitivity than suggested by the previous CMIP5 models. … Continue reading
Climate sensitivity and decadal temperature variability
There are some who argue that natural/internal variability can play a role in driving long-term warming, and – hence – could explain a substantial fraction of recent warming. This, however, creates a bit of a paradox; if the system responds … Continue reading
The time evolution of climate sensitivity
I wanted to just post this figure from a new paper by Philip Goodwin called On the time evolution of climate sensitivity and future warming. It uses a modified energy balance approach in which multiple climate feedbacks evolve independently over … Continue reading
The ECS is probably above 2K
I have quite a large conference starting tomorrow, so will probably be too busy to write. To keep things ticking over I thought I would post this seminar given by Andrew Dessler, discussing his recent work on constraining the Equilibrium … Continue reading
Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Research
Tagged Andrew Dessler, ECS, Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity
110 Comments
ECS from a modified energy balance approach
Andrew Dessler’s paper (technically Dessler and Forster), which he mentioned in this comment, has now appeared as a pre-print. Essentially, they use an energy balance approach to estimate equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), but – as I mentioned in this post … Continue reading
Confounding ECS estimates
Kate Marvel and colleagues have just published an interesting paper on how [i]nternal variability and disequilibrium confound estimates of climate sensitivity from observations. Essentially they compare three different ways of estimating Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS): atmosphere-only simulations with observed sea … Continue reading
Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Research
Tagged amip, CMIP, ECS, Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity, Internal variability, Kate Marvel
193 Comments
Narrowing the climate sensitivity range?
There have been a couple of recent papers presenting analyses that claim to have narrowed the likely range for equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). One is Dessler et al. (currently a discussion paper under review) which suggests that the 500hPa tropical … Continue reading
Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Policy, Research, Science
Tagged Andrew Dessler, Carbon budgets, ECS, Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity, Peter Cox
151 Comments
Guest post: A ‘new’ measurement of climate sensitivity?
This is a guest post by Mark Richardson, who is currently a Caltech Postdoctoral Scholar at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Mark has a particular interest in the role of clouds in climate change. This post is a response to … Continue reading