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Tag Archives: Internal variability
Mitigation, adaptation, suffering
I’ve been struggling, more than usual, to find things to write about. Everything seems to just be a bit of a mess. The pandemic itself, how it’s been handled in some cases, and the protests in the USA, especially how … Continue reading
Constraining unforced variability
Pages 2k has a new Nature paper called Consistent multidecadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era. What they do is present 2,000-year-long global mean temperature reconstructions using seven different statistical methods that draw from a … Continue reading
Early 20th century warming
I’ve noticed that Judith Curry is discussing the early twentieth century warming. The idea is that there was a period of warming during the early twentieth century that was similar to the warming we’ve experienced since the second half of … Continue reading
Confounding ECS estimates
Kate Marvel and colleagues have just published an interesting paper on how [i]nternal variability and disequilibrium confound estimates of climate sensitivity from observations. Essentially they compare three different ways of estimating Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS): atmosphere-only simulations with observed sea … Continue reading
Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Research
Tagged amip, CMIP, ECS, Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity, Internal variability, Kate Marvel
193 Comments
Energy budgets
Stoat highlights an interesting paper that suggests that the rates of ancient climate change may be underestimate. I haven’t had a chance to really look at it, so if anyone has looked at it, and has any views, that would … Continue reading
Some thoughts on internal variability
Given that there’s been some discussion about internal variability in my previous post, and because there seems to have been interest elsewhere, I thought I would post some thoughts. A paper I was reading recently is Internal variability of Earth’s … Continue reading
Models don’t over-estimate warming?
I thought I might write about the new paper by Jochem Marotzke and Piers Forster called Forcing, feedback and internal variability in global temperature trends. It’s already been discussed in a Carbon Brief post called claims that climate models overestimate … Continue reading
A minimal model for climate sensitivity
I’ve written a number of times about energy balance models. I think these are nice ways to estimate effective climate sensitivity (both transient and equilibrium) but they are quite simple and do suffer from some issues. For example, they are … Continue reading
The length of the “pause”?
In a recent post, Judith Curry highlighted a new paper by Shaun Lovejoy called Return periods of global climate fluctuations and the pause. This is a follow-up of an earlier paper that concluded that the probability of a centennial scale … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged Climate models, GCMs, Hiatus, Internal variability, Natural variability, Shaun Lovejoy, The "pause"
20 Comments
What does Judith mean by natural?
Gavin Schmidt recently addressed Judith Curry’s 50:50 argument in a Realclimate post. In Judith’s response (which doesn’t really say much) she finishes with, I do regard the emerging realization of the importance of natural variability to be an existential threat … Continue reading
...and Then There's Physics 