Tag Archives: Internal variability

Confounding ECS estimates

Kate Marvel and colleagues have just published an interesting paper on how [i]nternal variability and disequilibrium confound estimates of climate sensitivity from observations. Essentially they compare three different ways of estimating Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS): atmosphere-only simulations with observed sea … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Research | Tagged , , , , , | 193 Comments

Energy budgets

Stoat highlights an interesting paper that suggests that the rates of ancient climate change may be underestimate. I haven’t had a chance to really look at it, so if anyone has looked at it, and has any views, that would … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Science | Tagged , , , , , , | 20 Comments

Some thoughts on internal variability

Given that there’s been some discussion about internal variability in my previous post, and because there seems to have been interest elsewhere, I thought I would post some thoughts. A paper I was reading recently is Internal variability of Earth’s … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ENSO, Global warming, IPCC, Michael Mann, Science | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 90 Comments

Models don’t over-estimate warming?

I thought I might write about the new paper by Jochem Marotzke and Piers Forster called Forcing, feedback and internal variability in global temperature trends. It’s already been discussed in a Carbon Brief post called claims that climate models overestimate … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Science | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 729 Comments

A minimal model for climate sensitivity

I’ve written a number of times about energy balance models. I think these are nice ways to estimate effective climate sensitivity (both transient and equilibrium) but they are quite simple and do suffer from some issues. For example, they are … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Science | Tagged , , , , , , , | 76 Comments

The length of the “pause”?

In a recent post, Judith Curry highlighted a new paper by Shaun Lovejoy called Return periods of global climate fluctuations and the pause. This is a follow-up of an earlier paper that concluded that the probability of a centennial scale … Continue reading

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What does Judith mean by natural?

Gavin Schmidt recently addressed Judith Curry’s 50:50 argument in a Realclimate post. In Judith’s response (which doesn’t really say much) she finishes with, I do regard the emerging realization of the importance of natural variability to be an existential threat … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ENSO, Global warming, IPCC, Judith Curry, Science | Tagged , , , , , | 210 Comments