Tag Archives: Internal variability

Confounding ECS estimates

Posted on January 30, 2018 by

Kate Marvel and colleagues have just published an interesting paper on how [i]nternal variability and disequilibrium confound estimates of climate sensitivity from observations. Essentially they compare three different ways of estimating Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS): atmosphere-only simulations with observed sea … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Research | Tagged , , , , , | 193 Comments

Energy budgets

Posted on November 25, 2015 by

Stoat highlights an interesting paper that suggests that the rates of ancient climate change may be underestimate. I haven’t had a chance to really look at it, so if anyone has looked at it, and has any views, that would … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Science | Tagged , , , , , , | 20 Comments

Some thoughts on internal variability

Posted on March 1, 2015 by

Given that there’s been some discussion about internal variability in my previous post, and because there seems to have been interest elsewhere, I thought I would post some thoughts. A paper I was reading recently is Internal variability of Earth’s … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ENSO, Global warming, IPCC, Michael Mann, Science | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 90 Comments

Models don’t over-estimate warming?

Posted on January 31, 2015 by

I thought I might write about the new paper by Jochem Marotzke and Piers Forster called Forcing, feedback and internal variability in global temperature trends. It’s already been discussed in a Carbon Brief post called claims that climate models overestimate … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Science | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 729 Comments

A minimal model for climate sensitivity

Posted on December 14, 2014 by

I’ve written a number of times about energy balance models. I think these are nice ways to estimate effective climate sensitivity (both transient and equilibrium) but they are quite simple and do suffer from some issues. For example, they are … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Science | Tagged , , , , , , , | 76 Comments

The length of the “pause”?

Posted on September 2, 2014 by

In a recent post, Judith Curry highlighted a new paper by Shaun Lovejoy called Return periods of global climate fluctuations and the pause. This is a follow-up of an earlier paper that concluded that the probability of a centennial scale … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , | 20 Comments

What does Judith mean by natural?

Posted on August 28, 2014 by

Gavin Schmidt recently addressed Judith Curry’s 50:50 argument in a Realclimate post. In Judith’s response (which doesn’t really say much) she finishes with, I do regard the emerging realization of the importance of natural variability to be an existential threat … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ENSO, Global warming, IPCC, Judith Curry, Science | Tagged , , , , , | 210 Comments