Tag Archives: Internal variability

Mitigation, adaptation, suffering

I’ve been struggling, more than usual, to find things to write about. Everything seems to just be a bit of a mess. The pandemic itself, how it’s been handled in some cases, and the protests in the USA, especially how … Continue reading

Posted in advocacy, Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Philosophy for Bloggers | Tagged , , | 5 Comments

Constraining unforced variability

Pages 2k has a new Nature paper called Consistent multidecadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era. What they do is present 2,000-year-long global mean temperature reconstructions using seven different statistical methods that draw from a … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Research, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , | 8 Comments

Early 20th century warming

I’ve noticed that Judith Curry is discussing the early twentieth century warming. The idea is that there was a period of warming during the early twentieth century that was similar to the warming we’ve experienced since the second half of … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Judith Curry, Pseudoscience | Tagged , , , , | 34 Comments

Confounding ECS estimates

Kate Marvel and colleagues have just published an interesting paper on how [i]nternal variability and disequilibrium confound estimates of climate sensitivity from observations. Essentially they compare three different ways of estimating Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS): atmosphere-only simulations with observed sea … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Research | Tagged , , , , , | 193 Comments

Energy budgets

Stoat highlights an interesting paper that suggests that the rates of ancient climate change may be underestimate. I haven’t had a chance to really look at it, so if anyone has looked at it, and has any views, that would … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Science | Tagged , , , , , , | 20 Comments

Some thoughts on internal variability

Given that there’s been some discussion about internal variability in my previous post, and because there seems to have been interest elsewhere, I thought I would post some thoughts. A paper I was reading recently is Internal variability of Earth’s … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ENSO, Global warming, IPCC, Michael Mann, Science | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 90 Comments

Models don’t over-estimate warming?

I thought I might write about the new paper by Jochem Marotzke and Piers Forster called Forcing, feedback and internal variability in global temperature trends. It’s already been discussed in a Carbon Brief post called claims that climate models overestimate … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Science | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 729 Comments