Tag Archives: James Annan

Debate about communicating tipping points

Posted on February 23, 2020 by ...and Then There's Physics

The new book about Contemporary Climate Change Debates, that I discussed in this post, includes a debate about whether or not ‘tipping point[s]’ [are] helpful for describing and communicating possible climate futures? James Annan suggests that the answer is “no”, … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Policy, The philosophy of science, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , | 340 Comments

An updated Bayesian climate sensitivity estimate

Posted on March 31, 2019 by ...and Then There's Physics

I thought I would update my Bayesian climate sensitivity estimate, given the comments I received (peer-review in action). Based on James’s comment, I’ve removed the noise term and am now using the aerosol forcing as the forcing uncertainty. Based on … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Research, Science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 43 Comments

Initial value problem vs boundary value problem

Posted on May 29, 2018 by ...and Then There's Physics

I haven’t actually looked at Judith Curry’s blog for a while, but popped across there and noticed a guest post about energy budgets, climate system domains, and internal variability. One reason why we think that we can actually do long-term … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, ClimateBall, Science | Tagged , , , , , , , | 392 Comments

More about Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity

Posted on December 14, 2017 by ...and Then There's Physics

It’s currently the AGU Fall Meeting and there was a session on Climate sensitivity and feedbacks. It included talks by Kate Marvel and Kyle Armour, and I noticed that the Convener, Andrew Dessler, had tweeted This leads to one of … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Global warming, IPCC, Science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , | 34 Comments

Prior knowledge

Posted on September 9, 2017 by ...and Then There's Physics

Something I have been bothered about for some time now, is how we best discuss climate change in the context of extreme events. Given the devastation from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, damaging floods in South Asia and Nigeria, and the … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Global warming, Michael Mann, Research, Science, The philosophy of science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , | 49 Comments

Climate model tuning

Posted on September 5, 2017 by ...and Then There's Physics

I wrote a post about model tuning that discussed a paper that argued for more transparency in how climate models are tuned. Gavin Schmidt, and colleagues, have now published a paper that discusses the Practice and philosophy of climate model … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Gavin Schmidt, Research, Science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , | 62 Comments

Poor Roger!

Posted on December 4, 2016 by ...and Then There's Physics

I wrote a post about Roger Pielke Jr’s recent Wall Street Journal article about his [u]nhappy life as a climate heretic, but it was rather long and rambling, so I can’t actually bring myself to post it. Instead, I’ll just … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, ClimateBall, Research, Roger Pielke Jr, Science | Tagged , , , , , | 164 Comments

Non-linear climate sensitivity

Posted on November 15, 2016 by ...and Then There's Physics

Rather strangely, the recent Science Advances paper Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming, that’s been getting some attention recently, made it into our Journal Club today (and it had nothing to do with me). It’s, consequently, … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall | Tagged , , , , | 131 Comments

Bayesian estimates of climate sensitivity

Posted on December 4, 2015 by ...and Then There's Physics

Thanks to Bill Shockley I’ve been made aware of new paper by James Annan about recent developments in Bayesian estimation of climate sensitivity. It covers many things I’ve been wondering about, so I found it very interesting. I don’t need … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, IPCC, Science | Tagged , , , , , | 370 Comments

Nic Lewis’s latest estimates

Posted on June 7, 2015 by ...and Then There's Physics

This is going to be a rather lazy post, as I’ve been at the beach all day with the kids and don’t have much energy. I was just interested in whether or not anyone had had a chance to look … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Science | Tagged , , , , , , | 151 Comments