Tag Archives: Nic Lewis

Airborne fraction

Given the recent news that the rise in CO2 has greened the planet, I can see a new “skeptic” meme appearing. Essentially, I can see them arguing that both climate sensitivity is too high, and that nature will take up … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Judith Curry, Science | Tagged , , , | 37 Comments

The TCR-to-ECS ratio

Something I’ve been interested in is whether or not the ratio between the Transient Climate Response (TCR) and the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) best estimates from most of Nic Lewis’s work makes sense. Typically his TCR best estimate is around … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Global warming, Science | Tagged , , , , , , | 78 Comments

ECS too low?

I’ve regularly written about the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS), in particular estimates by Nic Lewis and why they are probably a bit too low. For balance I should probably now mention a new paper called Observational constraints on mixed-phase clouds … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Gavin Schmidt, Science | Tagged , , , , , , , | 23 Comments

Record Warmth

Michael Mann, Stefan Rahmstorf and colleagues have a new paper on the likelihood of the recent warmth. What they’re investigating is the run of warm years we’ve seen recently – 13 of the warmest 15 years have happened since 2000, … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Judith Curry, Science | Tagged , , , , , | 62 Comments

What a surprise …. not

To the surprise of no one, Nic Lewis has found many serious problems with the recently published Marvel et al. paper (also discussed here and here). Even less of a surprise is Andrew Montford lapping up Nic’s claims with glee. … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Gavin Schmidt, Global warming, Science, Steven McIntyre | Tagged , , , , , , | 181 Comments

Bayesian estimates of climate sensitivity

Thanks to Bill Shockley I’ve been made aware of new paper by James Annan about recent developments in Bayesian estimation of climate sensitivity. It covers many things I’ve been wondering about, so I found it very interesting. I don’t need … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, IPCC, Science | Tagged , , , , , | 369 Comments

Sensitivity to cumulative emissions

Something I’ve mentioned here quite regularly is the idea that warming depends roughly linearly on cumulative (total) emissions. This is slightly counter intuitive, in that warming depends logarithmically on atmospheric CO2 concentration. The reason is essentially that it incorporates climate … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Global warming, IPCC, Judith Curry, Science | Tagged , , , , , , | 202 Comments

Physically plausible?

In my post about Nic Lewis’s latest estimates, I suggested that if his prior produces a posterior distribution that indicates that the ECS is more likely less than 2oC, than above 2oC, maybe he should consider a more physically motivated … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Science | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 78 Comments

Nic Lewis’s latest estimates

This is going to be a rather lazy post, as I’ve been at the beach all day with the kids and don’t have much energy. I was just interested in whether or not anyone had had a chance to look … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Science | Tagged , , , , , , | 151 Comments

How many times do we have to do this?

I’ve just discovered that the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) have enlisted top scientists to examine adjusted global warming figures. Their justification seems to be two articles by Christopher Booker, which just goes to show that when I think that … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, ClimateBall, Global warming, Science | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 132 Comments