Tag Archives: RCP

Plausible emission scenarios

A paper by Roger Pielke Jr, Matthew Burgess and Justin Ritchie has been submitted that suggests that the most plausible 2005-2040 emission scenarios project less than 2.5oC of warming by 2100. It’s generated a bit of debate on social media, … Continue reading

Posted in ClimateBall, Global warming, Policy, Roger Pielke Jr | Tagged , , , , , | 57 Comments

An updated Bayesian climate sensitivity estimate

I thought I would update my Bayesian climate sensitivity estimate, given the comments I received (peer-review in action). Based on James’s comment, I’ve removed the noise term and am now using the aerosol forcing as the forcing uncertainty. Based on … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Research, Science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 43 Comments

RCP8.5

There’s been a lengthy discussion on Twitter about RCP8.5. I think it was initiated by Roger Pielke Jr, who continues in his campaign to police the scientific community: RCP 8.5 is by far the favorite in climate impact studies (graph).I … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Policy, Research, Scientists | Tagged , , , , | 275 Comments