Tag Archives: RCP8.5

Beyond Catastrophe

Since some commenters on my previous post have mentioned this, I though I might comment on David Wallace-Wells’ recent article in the New York Times. It’s called Beyond Catastrophe, and argues that Thanks to astonishing declines in the price of … Continue reading

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Posted in Climate change, ClimateBall, Global warming, Roger Pielke Jr | Tagged , , , , | 149 Comments

Considering Catastrophe

There’s been quite a lot of recent coverage of a paper suggesting that climate endgames, such as global societal collapse or human extinction, have been dangerously unexplored. For those who recall the contentious RCP8.5 debate, this may seem a surprising … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Gavin Schmidt, Policy, Research, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 92 Comments

Plausible emission scenarios

A paper by Roger Pielke Jr, Matthew Burgess and Justin Ritchie has been submitted that suggests that the most plausible 2005-2040 emission scenarios project less than 2.5oC of warming by 2100. It’s generated a bit of debate on social media, … Continue reading

Posted in ClimateBall, Global warming, Policy, Roger Pielke Jr | Tagged , , , , , | 68 Comments

RCP8.5 – another update

In case anyone is interested, Zeke Hausfather and Glen Peters have a Nature comment about the whole RCP8.5 issue. Unfortunately, they used misleading in the title, which seems to have produced an unfortunate headline on a BBC article. Otherwise, Zeke … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, ClimateBall, Gavin Schmidt, Michael Mann, Research, Scientists, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , | 67 Comments

The never-ending RCP8.5 debate

I think my New Year’s resolution is going to be to not talk about RCP8.5. However, I think I will briefly summarise the state of the never-ending debate. I thought we’d reached a bit of a breakthough when Zeke Hausfather … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, ClimateBall, GRRRRROWTH, Scientists, The philosophy of science | Tagged , , , , , , | 141 Comments

Different perspectives

I’ve been reflecting a little on some of the recent discussions I’ve had, mostly on Twitter, with those who have more expertise in emission scenarios, and energy systems, than in physical climate science specifically. I’ve found it a somewhat frustrating … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Philosophy for Bloggers, Policy, Scientists, The philosophy of science | Tagged , , , , , | 147 Comments

High emission scenarios

I thought I might briefly reflect, again, on the whole RCP8.5 discussion. In case anyone missed it, there has been a lengthy online discussion about RCP8.5, which is a concentration/forcing pathway that leads to a change in forcing of 8.5 … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Severe Events | Tagged , , , , , | 132 Comments

Sigh

There’s been a rather contentious Twitter thread about RCP8.5, a concentration/forcing pathway I’ve discussed before. It started with a claim that it was “bollox” followed by a suggestion that it was mainly used for generating headlines, scaring gullible folk and … Continue reading

Posted in Carbon tax, ClimateBall, Policy, Scientists, Sound Science (tm) | Tagged , , , , , , | 101 Comments

The Plausibility of RCP8.5 – part II

A while ago I wrote a post about the plausibility of RCP8.5. It was essentially pointing out that there are a range of emission pathways, and hence cumulative emissions, that could lead to an RCP8.5 concentration pathway. Some of them … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Global warming, GRRRROWTH | Tagged , , , , , | 39 Comments

RCP8.5

There’s been a lengthy discussion on Twitter about RCP8.5. I think it was initiated by Roger Pielke Jr, who continues in his campaign to police the scientific community: RCP 8.5 is by far the favorite in climate impact studies (graph).I … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Policy, Research, Scientists | Tagged , , , , | 277 Comments