Tag Archives: Representative Concentration Pathways

Plausible scenarios

Posted on January 16, 2023 by ...and Then There's Physics

New Scientist has a recent article about [t]he worst-case climate scenarios are no longer plausible today. This is a topic that has been covered here before, and is partly motivated by a paper discussed in this post. The basic premise … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, ClimateBall, ClimateBall Bingo, economics, Scientists, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , | 242 Comments

Plausible emission scenarios

Posted on April 12, 2021 by ...and Then There's Physics

A paper by Roger Pielke Jr, Matthew Burgess and Justin Ritchie has been submitted that suggests that the most plausible 2005-2040 emission scenarios project less than 2.5oC of warming by 2100. It’s generated a bit of debate on social media, … Continue reading →

Posted in ClimateBall, Global warming, Policy, Roger Pielke Jr | Tagged , , , , , | 68 Comments

Scenario use in climate research

Posted on April 23, 2020 by ...and Then There's Physics

If you’ve been following the blog for a while, you will be aware that I’ve commented on a number of occasions about the whole RCP8.5 issue. You may also be aware that one of the chief protagonists in that whole … Continue reading →

Posted in ClimateBall, Contrarian Matrix, Philosophy for Bloggers, Roger Pielke Jr, Scientists, The philosophy of science | Tagged , , , , , | 45 Comments

Different perspectives

Posted on December 7, 2019 by ...and Then There's Physics

I’ve been reflecting a little on some of the recent discussions I’ve had, mostly on Twitter, with those who have more expertise in emission scenarios, and energy systems, than in physical climate science specifically. I’ve found it a somewhat frustrating … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Philosophy for Bloggers, Policy, Scientists, The philosophy of science | Tagged , , , , , | 147 Comments

Stocks and Flows

Posted on December 4, 2019 by ...and Then There's Physics

Sitting at home waiting for a delivery, so just a quick post. There’s been a new narrative, on social media at least, that we may be heading for a plateau in global emissions. The suggestion, then, is that we are … Continue reading →

Posted in advocacy, Carbon tax, Climate change, Global warming, Policy | Tagged , , , , , | 120 Comments

Worst case scenarios, or not?

Posted on October 6, 2019 by ...and Then There's Physics

I’ve been thinking a bit more about the debate around high emission scenarios, which I found rather frustrating. I think it’s an important issue, but the manner in which some people choose to frame this does make it difficult to … Continue reading →

Posted in Carbon tax, Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall | Tagged , , , , , | 47 Comments

The Plausibility of RCP8.5 – part II

Posted on March 10, 2019 by ...and Then There's Physics

A while ago I wrote a post about the plausibility of RCP8.5. It was essentially pointing out that there are a range of emission pathways, and hence cumulative emissions, that could lead to an RCP8.5 concentration pathway. Some of them … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Global warming, GRRRROWTH | Tagged , , , , , | 39 Comments

RCP8.5

Posted on May 10, 2018 by ...and Then There's Physics

There’s been a lengthy discussion on Twitter about RCP8.5. I think it was initiated by Roger Pielke Jr, who continues in his campaign to police the scientific community: RCP 8.5 is by far the favorite in climate impact studies (graph).I … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Policy, Research, Scientists | Tagged , , , , | 277 Comments

Public criticism

Posted on January 6, 2017 by ...and Then There's Physics

I came across an article about media and the game of climate change denialism. The basic message is that the media should better reflect the nuances in the climate change debate and should avoid presenting it as a debate between … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Global warming, IPCC | Tagged , , , , , | 39 Comments

RCPs as scenarios

Posted on December 17, 2015 by ...and Then There's Physics

Fabius Maximus has a guest post on Climate Etc. in which he focuses on RCP8.5. RCP8.5 is a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) that leads to a change in forcing of 8.5Wm-2 in 2100. Focusing on this particular RCP seems to … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, IPCC, Science | Tagged , , , , , | 179 Comments