Tag Archives: TCR

Can climate sensitivity be really high?

Posted on June 13, 2020 by ...and Then There's Physics

The answer to the question in my post title is – unfortunately – yes. The generally accepted likely range for equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is 2oC – 4.5oC. This doesn’t mean that it has to fall within this range, it … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Research, Science, The philosophy of science | Tagged , , , , | 36 Comments

Another CMIP6 climate sensitivity constraint

Posted on January 6, 2020 by ...and Then There's Physics

I thought I would follow up yesterday’s post with one that highlights another paper that looks at CMIP6 climate sensitivity. It’s a paper by Femke Nijsse, and colleagues, and considers [a]n emergent constraint on Transient Climate Response from simulated historical … Continue reading →

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Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Philosophy for Bloggers, Research, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 139 Comments

An attempt to do a Bayesian estimate of climate sensitivity

Posted on March 25, 2019 by ...and Then There's Physics

Update (02/04/2019): I’ve updated this in a new post. The updated result suggests a slightly lower climate sensitivity and a narrower range. The main difference is – I think – how I was handling the forcing uncertainty. In this post, … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Research | Tagged , , , , , , , | 50 Comments

New ocean heat content analysis

Posted on November 3, 2018 by ...and Then There's Physics

Update: (26/09/2019) This paper has now been retracted. The authors says Shortly after publication, arising from comments from Nicholas Lewis, we realized that our reported uncertainties were underestimated owing to our treatment of certain systematic errors as random errors. In … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Policy, Research | Tagged , , , , , , | 183 Comments

Lewis and Curry, again

Posted on April 27, 2018 by ...and Then There's Physics

I should probably say something about the new Lewis & Curry paper. It’s mostly an update to their earlier paper that I’ve discussed before. Bottom line; there are reasons to be cautious. The basic formalism is that one can use … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Judith Curry, Research, Science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 691 Comments

A bit more about committed warming

Posted on October 1, 2017 by ...and Then There's Physics

On a number of occasions I’ve pointed out that our warming committment is not actually the equilibrium temperature to our current atmospheric concentration because, if we halted all emissions, atmospheric CO2 would drop as the natural sinks took up more … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming | Tagged , , , , , , | 84 Comments

Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity

Posted on September 7, 2017 by ...and Then There's Physics

Since I’ve written about climate sensitivity before, and since I have a few free moments, I thought I would briefly highlight a new paper by Knutti, Rugenstein, and Hegerl called Beyond Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity. It’s really a review of a … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Research, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Non-linear climate sensitivity

Posted on November 15, 2016 by ...and Then There's Physics

Rather strangely, the recent Science Advances paper Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming, that’s been getting some attention recently, made it into our Journal Club today (and it had nothing to do with me). It’s, consequently, … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall | Tagged , , , , | 131 Comments

Full-depth OHC

Posted on July 28, 2016 by ...and Then There's Physics

Since my holiday is now over, I thought I might briefly comment on a recent paper by Cheng et al., called Observed and simulated full-depth ocean heat-content changes for 1970–2005. John Abraham, one of the authors, has already discussed it … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Research, Science | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 39 Comments

Climate Sensitivity on the Rise

Posted on July 7, 2016 by ...and Then There's Physics

There’s a Nature news & views article by Kyle Armour called Projection and prediction: Climate sensitivity on the rise. It discusses various analyses that indicate that simple energy balance methods tend to under-estimate climate sensitivity. Normally, I would write a … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Science | Tagged , , , , , | 100 Comments