-
Recent Posts
- The social construction of science March 8, 2021
- ‘Net zero’ March 3, 2021
- Losing the sky February 26, 2021
- Agricultural emissions February 7, 2021
- Deferential? February 3, 2021
- Anti-Virus January 30, 2021
- Alan’s Bottle January 23, 2021
- On baselines and climate normals January 17, 2021
Recent Comments
Steven Mosher on The social construction of… Steven Mosher on The social construction of… Steven Mosher on The social construction of… Everett F Sargent on The social construction of… smallbluemike on ‘Net zero’ Everett F Sargent on The social construction of… brigittenerlich on The social construction of… ...and Then There's… on The social construction of… brigittenerlich on The social construction of… ...and Then There's… on ‘Net zero’ Archives
- March 2021 (2)
- February 2021 (3)
- January 2021 (5)
- December 2020 (6)
- November 2020 (5)
- October 2020 (4)
- September 2020 (4)
- August 2020 (3)
- July 2020 (6)
- June 2020 (5)
- May 2020 (3)
- April 2020 (6)
- March 2020 (9)
- February 2020 (3)
- January 2020 (7)
- December 2019 (8)
- November 2019 (8)
- October 2019 (9)
- September 2019 (9)
- August 2019 (8)
- July 2019 (6)
- June 2019 (7)
- May 2019 (8)
- April 2019 (8)
- March 2019 (11)
- February 2019 (7)
- January 2019 (11)
- December 2018 (9)
- November 2018 (7)
- October 2018 (9)
- September 2018 (7)
- August 2018 (6)
- July 2018 (8)
- June 2018 (8)
- May 2018 (9)
- April 2018 (8)
- March 2018 (9)
- February 2018 (7)
- January 2018 (9)
- December 2017 (10)
- November 2017 (9)
- October 2017 (12)
- September 2017 (14)
- August 2017 (12)
- July 2017 (11)
- June 2017 (9)
- May 2017 (11)
- April 2017 (15)
- March 2017 (11)
- February 2017 (10)
- January 2017 (14)
- December 2016 (9)
- November 2016 (10)
- October 2016 (9)
- September 2016 (11)
- August 2016 (12)
- July 2016 (11)
- June 2016 (11)
- May 2016 (12)
- April 2016 (13)
- March 2016 (13)
- February 2016 (12)
- January 2016 (18)
- December 2015 (13)
- November 2015 (22)
- October 2015 (19)
- September 2015 (16)
- August 2015 (14)
- July 2015 (9)
- June 2015 (15)
- May 2015 (17)
- April 2015 (16)
- March 2015 (15)
- February 2015 (15)
- January 2015 (15)
- December 2014 (14)
- November 2014 (11)
- October 2014 (20)
- September 2014 (13)
- August 2014 (20)
- July 2014 (13)
- June 2014 (12)
- May 2014 (15)
- April 2014 (14)
- March 2014 (19)
- February 2014 (17)
- January 2014 (23)
- December 2013 (23)
- November 2013 (22)
- October 2013 (29)
- September 2013 (27)
- August 2013 (29)
- July 2013 (37)
- June 2013 (34)
- May 2013 (49)
- April 2013 (33)
- advocacy Anthony Watts Carbon tax ClimateBall Climate change Climate sensitivity Comedy ENSO Environmental change ethics Gavin Schmidt Global warming Greenhouse effect IPCC Judith Curry Michael Mann Personal Philosophy for Bloggers Policy Politics Pseudoscience Research Satire Science Scientists Sound Science (tm) The philosophy of science The scientific method Uncategorized Watts Up With That
- Follow …and Then There's Physics on WordPress.com
Top Posts & Pages
Rachel Squirrel
- The velvet dress and a tummy bug March 8, 2021
Rabett Run
- An error has occurred; the feed is probably down. Try again later.
HotWhopper
Variable Variability
RealClimate
Stoat
- More wank about science as a social construct March 8, 2021
Open Mind
- COVID-19: Failure July 23, 2020
Climate denial crock of the week
- Anti-Clean Energy Messaging Fails in Texas, US March 8, 2021
robertscribbler
Moyhu
uknowispeaksense
- An error has occurred; the feed is probably down. Try again later.
Real Sceptic
- Choosing Alternative Medicine To Treat Cancer Is Deadly October 25, 2017
Musings on Quantitative Palaeoecology
- Reproducibility of high resolution reconstruction – one year on October 11, 2020
James’s Empty Blog
- BlueSkiesResearch.org.uk: Escape velocity March 1, 2021
Isaac Held’s Blog
- 73. Tuning to the global mean temperature record November 28, 2016
More than just data
- Digital conferences – how might they work? May 10, 2020
Mallemaroking
- A comment piece on the SROCC September 26, 2019
Symptons of the Universe
- Primal Beat Therapy February 13, 2021
Follow me on Twitter
My TweetsBlogs I Follow
- ...and Then There's Physics
- Neverending Audit
- James' Empty Blog
- Isaac Held's Blog
- izen
- EssaysConcerning
- ClimateBall
- Vitamin CCS
- Rachel
- Lawrence Torcello
- Small Epiphanies
- Real Skeptic
- Critical Angle
- Gra Machree
- Open Parachute
- Simple Climate
- Stoat
- From a Glaciers Perspective
- Variable Variability
- THE CLIMATE WARS
- Musings on Quantitative Palaeoecology
- robertscribbler
- Climate Denial Crock of the Week
- DeSmogBlog
- RealClimate
- Idiot Tracker
- Graham Readfearn
- Skepticblog
- What'sUpWithThatWatts, et al.
- Rabett Run
- Watching the Deniers
- HotWhopper
- ThinkProgress - Medium
- Skeptical Science
- Wott's Up With That?
- Open Mind
Tag Archives: TCR
Can climate sensitivity be really high?
The answer to the question in my post title is – unfortunately – yes. The generally accepted likely range for equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is 2oC – 4.5oC. This doesn’t mean that it has to fall within this range, it … Continue reading
Another CMIP6 climate sensitivity constraint
I thought I would follow up yesterday’s post with one that highlights another paper that looks at CMIP6 climate sensitivity. It’s a paper by Femke Nijsse, and colleagues, and considers [a]n emergent constraint on Transient Climate Response from simulated historical … Continue reading
An attempt to do a Bayesian estimate of climate sensitivity
Update (02/04/2019): I’ve updated this in a new post. The updated result suggests a slightly lower climate sensitivity and a narrower range. The main difference is – I think – how I was handling the forcing uncertainty. In this post, … Continue reading
Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Research
Tagged ECS, emcee, Laure Zanna, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC, Ocean heat content, Simple climate model, TCR
50 Comments
New ocean heat content analysis
Update: (26/09/2019) This paper has now been retracted. The authors says Shortly after publication, arising from comments from Nicholas Lewis, we realized that our reported uncertainties were underestimated owing to our treatment of certain systematic errors as random errors. In … Continue reading
Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Policy, Research
Tagged Climate sensitivity, ECS, Ocean heat content, OHC, Resplandy, TCR, TCRE
183 Comments
Lewis and Curry, again
I should probably say something about the new Lewis & Curry paper. It’s mostly an update to their earlier paper that I’ve discussed before. Bottom line; there are reasons to be cautious. The basic formalism is that one can use … Continue reading
A bit more about committed warming
On a number of occasions I’ve pointed out that our warming committment is not actually the equilibrium temperature to our current atmospheric concentration because, if we halted all emissions, atmospheric CO2 would drop as the natural sinks took up more … Continue reading
Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity
Since I’ve written about climate sensitivity before, and since I have a few free moments, I thought I would briefly highlight a new paper by Knutti, Rugenstein, and Hegerl called Beyond Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity. It’s really a review of a … Continue reading
Non-linear climate sensitivity
Rather strangely, the recent Science Advances paper Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming, that’s been getting some attention recently, made it into our Journal Club today (and it had nothing to do with me). It’s, consequently, … Continue reading
Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall
Tagged Climate sensitivity, ECS, James Annan, Non-linear feedbacks, TCR
131 Comments
Full-depth OHC
Since my holiday is now over, I thought I might briefly comment on a recent paper by Cheng et al., called Observed and simulated full-depth ocean heat-content changes for 1970–2005. John Abraham, one of the authors, has already discussed it … Continue reading
Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Research, Science
Tagged Climate models, CMIP5, ECS, John Abraham, Kevin Trenberth, Lijing Cheng, Ocean heat content, OHC, TCR
39 Comments
Climate Sensitivity on the Rise
There’s a Nature news & views article by Kyle Armour called Projection and prediction: Climate sensitivity on the rise. It discusses various analyses that indicate that simple energy balance methods tend to under-estimate climate sensitivity. Normally, I would write a … Continue reading
Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Science
Tagged Climate sensitivity, ECS, Kyle Armour, nature, TCR, Victor Venema
100 Comments