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Rachel Squirrel- The velvet dress and a tummy bug March 8, 2021
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- Isaac Held’s Blog
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Tag Archives: TCR
Can climate sensitivity be really high?
The answer to the question in my post title is – unfortunately – yes. The generally accepted likely range for equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is 2oC – 4.5oC. This doesn’t mean that it has to fall within this range, it … Continue reading
Another CMIP6 climate sensitivity constraint
I thought I would follow up yesterday’s post with one that highlights another paper that looks at CMIP6 climate sensitivity. It’s a paper by Femke Nijsse, and colleagues, and considers [a]n emergent constraint on Transient Climate Response from simulated historical … Continue reading
An attempt to do a Bayesian estimate of climate sensitivity
Update (02/04/2019): I’ve updated this in a new post. The updated result suggests a slightly lower climate sensitivity and a narrower range. The main difference is – I think – how I was handling the forcing uncertainty. In this post, … Continue reading
Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Research
Tagged ECS, emcee, Laure Zanna, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC, Ocean heat content, Simple climate model, TCR
50 Comments
New ocean heat content analysis
Update: (26/09/2019) This paper has now been retracted. The authors says Shortly after publication, arising from comments from Nicholas Lewis, we realized that our reported uncertainties were underestimated owing to our treatment of certain systematic errors as random errors. In … Continue reading
Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Policy, Research
Tagged Climate sensitivity, ECS, Ocean heat content, OHC, Resplandy, TCR, TCRE
183 Comments
Lewis and Curry, again
I should probably say something about the new Lewis & Curry paper. It’s mostly an update to their earlier paper that I’ve discussed before. Bottom line; there are reasons to be cautious. The basic formalism is that one can use … Continue reading
A bit more about committed warming
On a number of occasions I’ve pointed out that our warming committment is not actually the equilibrium temperature to our current atmospheric concentration because, if we halted all emissions, atmospheric CO2 would drop as the natural sinks took up more … Continue reading
Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity
Since I’ve written about climate sensitivity before, and since I have a few free moments, I thought I would briefly highlight a new paper by Knutti, Rugenstein, and Hegerl called Beyond Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity. It’s really a review of a … Continue reading
Non-linear climate sensitivity
Rather strangely, the recent Science Advances paper Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming, that’s been getting some attention recently, made it into our Journal Club today (and it had nothing to do with me). It’s, consequently, … Continue reading
Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall
Tagged Climate sensitivity, ECS, James Annan, Non-linear feedbacks, TCR
131 Comments
Full-depth OHC
Since my holiday is now over, I thought I might briefly comment on a recent paper by Cheng et al., called Observed and simulated full-depth ocean heat-content changes for 1970–2005. John Abraham, one of the authors, has already discussed it … Continue reading
Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Research, Science
Tagged Climate models, CMIP5, ECS, John Abraham, Kevin Trenberth, Lijing Cheng, Ocean heat content, OHC, TCR
39 Comments
Climate Sensitivity on the Rise
There’s a Nature news & views article by Kyle Armour called Projection and prediction: Climate sensitivity on the rise. It discusses various analyses that indicate that simple energy balance methods tend to under-estimate climate sensitivity. Normally, I would write a … Continue reading
Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Science
Tagged Climate sensitivity, ECS, Kyle Armour, nature, TCR, Victor Venema
100 Comments
