Tag Archives: TCR

Climate sensitivity reconciled?

There’s a really interesting paper by Mark Richardson, Kevin Cowtan, Ed Hawkins, and Martin Stolpe called Reconciled climate response estimates from climate models and the energy budget of Earth. Ed already has post that explains it all very clearly, so … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Science | Tagged , , , , , , | 109 Comments

Planetary Energy Imbalance

I’m on a train heading to a meeting, and so, to move on from the whole Brexit saga, I thought I would briefly highlight this recent paper that provides an [Improved] estimate of Earth’s energy imbalance. It uses ocean heat … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Science | Tagged , , , , , , , | 40 Comments

Committed warming

There’s been a bit of a discussion on Twitter about what it would take to stabilise atmospheric concentrations, or to stabilise global average temperatures (there seemed to be some confusion as to which was being stabilised). The bottom line seems … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Science | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 157 Comments

The TCR-to-ECS ratio

Something I’ve been interested in is whether or not the ratio between the Transient Climate Response (TCR) and the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) best estimates from most of Nic Lewis’s work makes sense. Typically his TCR best estimate is around … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Global warming, Science | Tagged , , , , , , | 78 Comments

What a surprise …. not

To the surprise of no one, Nic Lewis has found many serious problems with the recently published Marvel et al. paper (also discussed here and here). Even less of a surprise is Andrew Montford lapping up Nic’s claims with glee. … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Gavin Schmidt, Global warming, Science, Steven McIntyre | Tagged , , , , , , | 181 Comments

Forcing efficacy

There’s a new paper, discussing climate sensitivity, by Marvel, Schmidt, Miller & Nazarenko called Implications for climate sensitivity from the response to individual forcings. Before I discuss the paper, I should really advertise the lead author’s blog, arguably one of … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Gavin Schmidt, Global warming, Science | Tagged , , , , , , , | 110 Comments

Nic Lewis’s latest estimates

This is going to be a rather lazy post, as I’ve been at the beach all day with the kids and don’t have much energy. I was just interested in whether or not anyone had had a chance to look … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Science | Tagged , , , , , , | 151 Comments

Aerosol forcing

I was wondering if a anyone had any insight into this new paper by Bjorn Stevens called Rethinking the lower bound on aerosol forcing. The basic goal seems to be to try and more tightly constrain the forcing due to … Continue reading

Posted in Anthony Watts, Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Global warming, IPCC, Judith Curry, Science, Watts Up With That | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 233 Comments

Some thoughts on climate sensitivity

Semyorka posted a comment on my previous post that highlighted a paper that I had’t seen before. The paper is Global atmospheric downward longwave radiation over land surface under all-sky conditions from 1973 to 2008 which tries to determine (as … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Science | Tagged , , , , , | 110 Comments

Black swans

Eli’s recent post about Black swans, and black cats, motivated me to look into what the whole Black Swan idea was all about. As I understand it, a Black Swan event is simply an unexpected event, that has a significant … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Science | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 84 Comments