Well, no, not really, but sometimes all you can do is larf. They’ve released a new report called Statistical forecasting: How fast will future warming be?. It is by Terence Mills, a statistics professor who specialises in Time Series analysis, and has already been picked up tby The Times and The Australian. The main motivation was to
set out a framework that encompasses a wide range of models for describing the evolution of an individual time series.
Bottom line; he used basic time series analysis to develop models that he could then use to make forecasts of future temperatures. Was there any physics, I hear you ask? The answer, as I’m sure you’ve guessed, is no.
The basic result is shown in the figure on the right, which shows forecasts based on two different models. The forecast (red line) indicates no future warming, essentially suggesting that climate sensitivity is 0. Well, this is obvious nonsense. Furthermore, Gavin Schmidt has added the more recent observations (thin blue line) which already fall outside the models’ 95% confidence intervals (green and black lines). So, a year in and the models are already diverging from reality.
Here’s the key point; projecting future warming requires some kind of estimate for future emissions. Trying to forecast future warming using some model with no physics and based only on past temperatures is obvious nonsense. Even a Professor of Statistics should be able to get this utterly trivial point. Maybe Terence Mills is so clueless that he really can’t grasp what is a pretty straightforward concept. Alternatively, maybe £3000 was enough for him to put his name to a report that he knew was garbage. Whichever it is, I fully expect Richard Tol to come along and defend it.