Monthly Archives: March 2019

An updated Bayesian climate sensitivity estimate

Posted on March 31, 2019 by ...and Then There's Physics

I thought I would update my Bayesian climate sensitivity estimate, given the comments I received (peer-review in action). Based on James’s comment, I’ve removed the noise term and am now using the aerosol forcing as the forcing uncertainty. Based on … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Research, Science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 43 Comments

An attempt to do a Bayesian estimate of climate sensitivity

Posted on March 25, 2019 by ...and Then There's Physics

Update (02/04/2019): I’ve updated this in a new post. The updated result suggests a slightly lower climate sensitivity and a narrower range. The main difference is – I think – how I was handling the forcing uncertainty. In this post, … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Research | Tagged , , , , , , , | 50 Comments

Jonathan’s Carrot and Stick

Posted on March 21, 2019 by Willard

Jonathan Gilligan is Associate Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences and Associate Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Vanderbilt University, or so starts his media blurb. To me, Jonathan is the ClimateBall fellow I met at Keith’s ages ago. … Continue reading →

Posted in We Are Science | Tagged , , , , | 50 Comments

The BBC’s lack of balance

Posted on March 17, 2019 by ...and Then There's Physics

Just discovered that a new BBC Scotland news programme (The Nine) decided that it would invite Andrew Montford on to discuss the Youth Strike for Climate. Fortunately, no one else was willing to appear with him, so the segment didn’t … Continue reading →

Posted in ClimateBall, Global warming, Policy | Tagged , , , , , , | 92 Comments

Open thread: Youth strike for climate

Posted on March 15, 2019 by ...and Then There's Physics

Since I haven’t had a post for a few days, I thought we could have an open thread about the youth strike for climate. I mostly think it’s quite a positive thing; it’s young people whose future is at stake … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, ClimateBall, Open Thread, Watts Up With That | Tagged , , , , , | 67 Comments

The Plausibility of RCP8.5 – part II

Posted on March 10, 2019 by ...and Then There's Physics

A while ago I wrote a post about the plausibility of RCP8.5. It was essentially pointing out that there are a range of emission pathways, and hence cumulative emissions, that could lead to an RCP8.5 concentration pathway. Some of them … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Global warming, GRRRROWTH | Tagged , , , , , | 39 Comments

The Honest Broker

Posted on March 8, 2019 by ...and Then There's Physics

In discussions about science and policy, it is quite common for people to refer to The Honest Broker, a book by Roger Pielke Jr. I realise that it is now a little old, but I’ve only just had the chance … Continue reading →

Posted in advocacy, ClimateBall, Roger Pielke Jr, Scientists, Sound Science (tm) | Tagged , , , , , , | 176 Comments

Guest post: On coral alarmism

Posted on March 5, 2019 by ...and Then There's Physics

This is a guest post by Geoff Price, who blogs at pressing wax and tweets as @geoffmprice. The post first appeared here and starts now. Even pretty staggering changes in the natural world can struggle to compete for attention amid the … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Contrarian Matrix, Environmental change, Global warming | Tagged , , , , , | 208 Comments

Climate change risks

Posted on March 4, 2019 by ...and Then There's Physics

I thought I would briefly mention a paper, by Simon Sharpe, that is currently under review and that discusses how we should present climate risks. It was highlighted by Steve Forden on Twitter and suggests that climate risks should be … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Environmental change, Global warming | Tagged , , , , | 18 Comments