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Rachel Squirrel- Rabett Run
- Gasoline consumption, California and USA
- Sea level rise came first for the Vikings, now it's coming for you
- What do physicists want?
- Look Who's Fighting Ocean Acidification
- The My Pillowfication of Twitter
- Posturing
- More Hydrogen Less Methane about the Same HO
- Empathy and denialism
- Give a Man a Solar Lamp
- Eli Rabett's Simple Plan to Relieve the Burdens of Student Loans
- HotWhopper
- The last 10 years are the hottest ever, yet deniers are still in denial
- Victor Venema, climate scientist, valued friend to many
- Email went down, now it's back
- We've got to get serious about climate, we've wasted too much time
- Alert for HotWhopper email subscribers to resubscribe
- Beware of internal conflicts, rivalries and toxic behaviour polluting climate action
- Where to from here?
- Everything climate disinformation from the climate conspiracy-theorists at WattsUpWithThat
- Rating climate science deniers to decide how/if to engage
- Greetings of the season, happy hols, stay safe
- Variable Variability
- One more reason I dislike linking climate change and extinction
- The 10th anniversary of the still unpublished Watts et al. (2012) manuscript
- New German Sovereign Tech Fund will fund open source digital infrastructure to avert the next log4j
- We launched a new group to promote the translation of the scientific literature
- The confusing politics behind John Stossel asking Are We Doomed?
- Antigen rapid tests much less effective for screening than previously thought according to top German virologist Drosten
- New paper: Spanish and German climatologists on how to remove errors from observed climate trends
- Yes, it makes sense not to have diner parties while the schools are still open. Think of it as a Corona contact budget.
- Science Feedback on Steroids
- The deleted chapter of the WMO Guidance on the homogenisation of climate station data
- RealClimate
- Evaluation of GCM simulations with a regional focus.
- CMIP6: Not-so-sudden stratospheric cooling
- Unforced variations: May 2023
- A NOAA-STAR dataset is born…
- The summary for policymakers of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sixth assessment reports synthesis
- Unforced Variations: Apr 2023
- Some new CMIP6 MSU comparisons
- How not to science
- Unforced variations: March 2023
- The established ground and new ideas
- Open Mind
- Climate denial crock of the week
- Manchin’s Pipeline: Did We Save the Economy and Kill the Climate?
- Will This Year’s El Nino be As Intense as 2015, 1998? Does it Matter?
- Will Clearer Skies Mean Runaway Warming?
- Retreat from Reason, Science, is Global
- State Farm: Climate, Inflation, Regs, Squeezing Insurers in California
- “What is Going On?” Physics Freaks a MAGA
- “Expect Chaos”: Hurricane Season Could a Different Breed
- How Wind Became Woke
- Georgia Nuclear Plant a Step Closer to Operation
- Music Break: Diana Krall, Sara McLachlan – If You Could Read My Mind
- robertscribbler
- OBX Wave Report May 31 — Stormy With a Slight Chance of Cyclone
- OBX Wave Report May 30 — Fun and Frothy
- OBX Wave Report May 29 — Memorial Day Surfing at Shell Island
- OBX Wave Report May 28 — Calmer Conditions
- OBX Wave Report May 27 — Powerful Gale Buffets Wrightsville Beach
- The OBX Wave Report May 26 — A Gale Force Friday For Future
- OBX Wave Report May 25 — Coastal Storm Begins To Gather Strength
- OBX Wave Report May 24 — Big and Stormy
- OBX Wave Report May 23 — 4-7 Foot and A Coastal Storm Incoming
- Starting to Work The Flow
- Moyhu
- GISS April global temperature down by 0.2°C from March.
- April global surface TempLS down 0.158°C from March.
- Hourly modelling of conversion of USA48 to wind/solar, with costing and optimisation - Updated.
- GISS March global temperature up by 0.23°C from February.
- March global surface TempLS up 0.229°C from February.
- CFACT says Net Zero is impossible? Debunked.
- GISS February global temperature up by 0.11°C from January.
- February global surface TempLS up 0.093°C from January.
- GISS January global temperature up by 0.06°C from December.
- January global surface TempLS up 0.014°C from December.
- Real Sceptic
- Choosing Alternative Medicine To Treat Cancer Is Deadly
- Why We Became Scientists: Dunderhead
- AGU Fall Meeting Day 1 – Education And Science Outreach
- San Francisco Meet Up & AGU Fall Meeting
- The Big Pharma Cancer Conspiracy
- Activity Trackers Aren’t A Weight Loss Miracle Cure
- Brexit: Emotions Trumped Facts During UK’s Referendum
- Devastating Reply To Richard Tol’s Nonsensus In Peer-Reviewed Journal
- How to hide most of China’s coal consumption
- Willie Soon’s Deliverables
- Musings on Quantitative Palaeoecology
- Resampling Assemblage Counts
- A demo targets plan for reproducible pipelines for Neotoma data
- Reproducibility of high resolution reconstruction – one year on
- Simplistic and Dangerous Models
- COVID-19, climate and the plague of preprints
- Erroneous information … was given
- Making a pollen diagram from Neotoma
- Count sums – the preprint
- Count-less chironomids?
- Tools for a reproducible manuscript
- James’s Empty Blog
- More than just data
- EGU 2022: Back in person
- vEGU2021: A “zoom” into science
- Digital conferences – how might they work?
- EGU 2020: A “chatty” conference
- Post-processing paper background: Do we need new approaches in verification?
- Post-processing paper background: EMD and IQD? What is it about?
- Post-processing paper background: Why do we need verification with uncertain observations?
- Post-processing paper background: Why does sub-sampling work?
- Post-processing paper background: What is sub-sampling?
- Background to “Seasonal statistical-dynamical prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation by probabilistic post-processing and its evaluation”
- Mallemaroking
- A comment piece on the SROCC
- Hudson Bay is breaking up early
- A trillion tonnes of ice on the move: Iceberg A68A
- Venta Maersk and the Northern Sea Route
- North Water Polynya in Nares Strait is opening
- Iceberg A38 at South Georgia in 2004
- Iceberg A68: You can’t always get what you want
- The Weddell Polynya to 23 November 2017
- Antarctic sea ice November 2017
- Rydberg Peninsula polynya October 2017
- Symptons of the Universe
- Quantum Mechanics and Mystics: Who Wooed Whom?
- PhD opening in Nottingham Nanoscience Group: AI & Atoms
- AI vs A-level
- Music by Ch@ – the artist formerly known as Chat GPT
- ChatGPT: Transforming Physics Education?
- Shut Up And Calculate
- When is a bird not a bird? When it’s a brand
- Postdoctoral research position available in Nottingham Nanoscience Group
- Sixty six and six months on, Maiden still a revelation
- On behalf of the Base-10 4 #10 Party…
Monthly Archives: March 2019
An updated Bayesian climate sensitivity estimate
I thought I would update my Bayesian climate sensitivity estimate, given the comments I received (peer-review in action). Based on James’s comment, I’ve removed the noise term and am now using the aerosol forcing as the forcing uncertainty. Based on … Continue reading
Posted in Climate sensitivity, Research, Science, The scientific method
Tagged CMIP5, Cowtan & Way, emcee, HadCRUT4, James Annan, Laure Zanna, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC, RCP
43 Comments
An attempt to do a Bayesian estimate of climate sensitivity
Update (02/04/2019): I’ve updated this in a new post. The updated result suggests a slightly lower climate sensitivity and a narrower range. The main difference is – I think – how I was handling the forcing uncertainty. In this post, … Continue reading
Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Research
Tagged ECS, emcee, Laure Zanna, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC, Ocean heat content, Simple climate model, TCR
50 Comments
Jonathan’s Carrot and Stick
Jonathan Gilligan is Associate Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences and Associate Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Vanderbilt University, or so starts his media blurb. To me, Jonathan is the ClimateBall fellow I met at Keith’s ages ago. … Continue reading
Posted in We Are Science
Tagged Brad Plumer, Green New Deal, Jonathan Gilligan, Ramez Naam, solution aversion
50 Comments
Public involvement in science
I had a brief discussion on Twitter yesterday about science communication, in which the other party seemed to be suggesting that we should recognise that lots of science comes up from the streets and that we should have more people … Continue reading
The BBC’s lack of balance
Just discovered that a new BBC Scotland news programme (The Nine) decided that it would invite Andrew Montford on to discuss the Youth Strike for Climate. Fortunately, no one else was willing to appear with him, so the segment didn’t … Continue reading
Posted in ClimateBall, Global warming, Policy
Tagged Andrew Montford, BBC, Bishop-Hill, Global Warming Policy Foundation, GWPF, The Nine, Youth strike for climate
92 Comments
Open thread: Youth strike for climate
Since I haven’t had a post for a few days, I thought we could have an open thread about the youth strike for climate. I mostly think it’s quite a positive thing; it’s young people whose future is at stake … Continue reading
The Plausibility of RCP8.5 – part II
A while ago I wrote a post about the plausibility of RCP8.5. It was essentially pointing out that there are a range of emission pathways, and hence cumulative emissions, that could lead to an RCP8.5 concentration pathway. Some of them … Continue reading
Posted in Climate change, Global warming, GRRRROWTH
Tagged Chris Jones, Emission pathways, ES-GCMs, IAMs, RCP8.5, Representative Concentration Pathways
39 Comments
The Honest Broker
In discussions about science and policy, it is quite common for people to refer to The Honest Broker, a book by Roger Pielke Jr. I realise that it is now a little old, but I’ve only just had the chance … Continue reading
Guest post: On coral alarmism
This is a guest post by Geoff Price, who blogs at pressing wax and tweets as @geoffmprice. The post first appeared here and starts now. Even pretty staggering changes in the natural world can struggle to compete for attention amid the … Continue reading
Climate change risks
I thought I would briefly mention a paper, by Simon Sharpe, that is currently under review and that discusses how we should present climate risks. It was highlighted by Steve Forden on Twitter and suggests that climate risks should be … Continue reading
...and Then There's Physics 