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Monthly Archives: March 2019
An updated Bayesian climate sensitivity estimate
I thought I would update my Bayesian climate sensitivity estimate, given the comments I received (peer-review in action). Based on James’s comment, I’ve removed the noise term and am now using the aerosol forcing as the forcing uncertainty. Based on … Continue reading
Posted in Climate sensitivity, Research, Science, The scientific method
Tagged CMIP5, Cowtan & Way, emcee, HadCRUT4, James Annan, Laure Zanna, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC, RCP
43 Comments
An attempt to do a Bayesian estimate of climate sensitivity
Update (02/04/2019): I’ve updated this in a new post. The updated result suggests a slightly lower climate sensitivity and a narrower range. The main difference is – I think – how I was handling the forcing uncertainty. In this post, … Continue reading
Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Research
Tagged ECS, emcee, Laure Zanna, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC, Ocean heat content, Simple climate model, TCR
50 Comments
Jonathan’s Carrot and Stick
Jonathan Gilligan is Associate Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences and Associate Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Vanderbilt University, or so starts his media blurb. To me, Jonathan is the ClimateBall fellow I met at Keith’s ages ago. … Continue reading
Posted in We Are Science
Tagged Brad Plumer, Green New Deal, Jonathan Gilligan, Ramez Naam, solution aversion
50 Comments
Public involvement in science
I had a brief discussion on Twitter yesterday about science communication, in which the other party seemed to be suggesting that we should recognise that lots of science comes up from the streets and that we should have more people … Continue reading
The BBC’s lack of balance
Just discovered that a new BBC Scotland news programme (The Nine) decided that it would invite Andrew Montford on to discuss the Youth Strike for Climate. Fortunately, no one else was willing to appear with him, so the segment didn’t … Continue reading
Posted in ClimateBall, Global warming, Policy
Tagged Andrew Montford, BBC, Bishop-Hill, Global Warming Policy Foundation, GWPF, The Nine, Youth strike for climate
92 Comments
Open thread: Youth strike for climate
Since I haven’t had a post for a few days, I thought we could have an open thread about the youth strike for climate. I mostly think it’s quite a positive thing; it’s young people whose future is at stake … Continue reading
The Plausibility of RCP8.5 – part II
A while ago I wrote a post about the plausibility of RCP8.5. It was essentially pointing out that there are a range of emission pathways, and hence cumulative emissions, that could lead to an RCP8.5 concentration pathway. Some of them … Continue reading
Posted in Climate change, Global warming, GRRRROWTH
Tagged Chris Jones, Emission pathways, ES-GCMs, IAMs, RCP8.5, Representative Concentration Pathways
39 Comments
The Honest Broker
In discussions about science and policy, it is quite common for people to refer to The Honest Broker, a book by Roger Pielke Jr. I realise that it is now a little old, but I’ve only just had the chance … Continue reading
Guest post: On coral alarmism
This is a guest post by Geoff Price, who blogs at pressing wax and tweets as @geoffmprice. The post first appeared here and starts now. Even pretty staggering changes in the natural world can struggle to compete for attention amid the … Continue reading
Climate change risks
I thought I would briefly mention a paper, by Simon Sharpe, that is currently under review and that discusses how we should present climate risks. It was highlighted by Steve Forden on Twitter and suggests that climate risks should be … Continue reading