Monthly Archives: March 2019

An updated Bayesian climate sensitivity estimate

I thought I would update my Bayesian climate sensitivity estimate, given the comments I received (peer-review in action). Based on James’s comment, I’ve removed the noise term and am now using the aerosol forcing as the forcing uncertainty. Based on … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Research, Science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 43 Comments

An attempt to do a Bayesian estimate of climate sensitivity

Update (02/04/2019): I’ve updated this in a new post. The updated result suggests a slightly lower climate sensitivity and a narrower range. The main difference is – I think – how I was handling the forcing uncertainty. In this post, … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Research | Tagged , , , , , , , | 50 Comments

Jonathan’s Carrot and Stick

Jonathan Gilligan is Associate Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences and Associate Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Vanderbilt University, or so starts his media blurb. To me, Jonathan is the ClimateBall fellow I met at Keith’s ages ago. … Continue reading

Posted in We Are Science | Tagged , , , , | 50 Comments

The BBC’s lack of balance

Just discovered that a new BBC Scotland news programme (The Nine) decided that it would invite Andrew Montford on to discuss the Youth Strike for Climate. Fortunately, no one else was willing to appear with him, so the segment didn’t … Continue reading

Posted in ClimateBall, Global warming, Policy | Tagged , , , , , , | 92 Comments

Open thread: Youth strike for climate

Since I haven’t had a post for a few days, I thought we could have an open thread about the youth strike for climate. I mostly think it’s quite a positive thing; it’s young people whose future is at stake … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, ClimateBall, Open Thread, Watts Up With That | Tagged , , , , , | 67 Comments

The Plausibility of RCP8.5 – part II

A while ago I wrote a post about the plausibility of RCP8.5. It was essentially pointing out that there are a range of emission pathways, and hence cumulative emissions, that could lead to an RCP8.5 concentration pathway. Some of them … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Global warming, GRRRROWTH | Tagged , , , , , | 39 Comments

The Honest Broker

In discussions about science and policy, it is quite common for people to refer to The Honest Broker, a book by Roger Pielke Jr. I realise that it is now a little old, but I’ve only just had the chance … Continue reading

Posted in advocacy, ClimateBall, Roger Pielke Jr, Scientists, Sound Science (tm) | Tagged , , , , , , | 173 Comments

Guest post: On coral alarmism

This is a guest post by Geoff Price, who blogs at pressing wax and tweets as @geoffmprice. The post first appeared here and starts now. Even pretty staggering changes in the natural world can struggle to compete for attention amid the … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Contrarian Matrix, Environmental change, Global warming | Tagged , , , , , | 208 Comments

Climate change risks

I thought I would briefly mention a paper, by Simon Sharpe, that is currently under review and that discusses how we should present climate risks. It was highlighted by Steve Forden on Twitter and suggests that climate risks should be … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Environmental change, Global warming | Tagged , , , , | 17 Comments