Tag Archives: ECS

ECS from a modified energy balance approach

Andrew Dessler’s paper (technically Dessler and Forster), which he mentioned in this comment, has now appeared as a pre-print. Essentially, they use an energy balance approach to estimate equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), but – as I mentioned in this post … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Research, Science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , , | 141 Comments

Confounding ECS estimates

Kate Marvel and colleagues have just published an interesting paper on how [i]nternal variability and disequilibrium confound estimates of climate sensitivity from observations. Essentially they compare three different ways of estimating Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS): atmosphere-only simulations with observed sea … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Research | Tagged , , , , , | 193 Comments

Narrowing the climate sensitivity range?

There have been a couple of recent papers presenting analyses that claim to have narrowed the likely range for equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). One is Dessler et al. (currently a discussion paper under review) which suggests that the 500hPa tropical … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Policy, Research, Science | Tagged , , , , | 150 Comments

What if global warming ends up being greater than we thought?

I recently wrote a post about the Brown & Caldeira paper which suggests that climate sensitivity may be on the high side of the range. Rather predictably, Nic Lewis has a guest post on Climate Etc in which he looks … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Global warming, GRRRROWTH, Science | Tagged , , , , , , | 71 Comments

More about Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity

It’s currently the AGU Fall Meeting and there was a session on Climate sensitivity and feedbacks. It included talks by Kate Marvel and Kyle Armour, and I noticed that the Convener, Andrew Dessler, had tweeted This leads to one of … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Global warming, IPCC, Science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , | 34 Comments

Combining different ECS estimates

I wanted to briefly highlight a new paper by Nic Lewis and Peter Grünwald called [o]bjectively combining AR5 instrumental period and paleoclimate climate sensitivity evidence. You may want, however, to be cautious of the term objective. As the title indicates, … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Research, Science | Tagged , , , , , , | 133 Comments

A bit more about clouds

A few years ago I posted a video by Andrew Dessler that was discussing whether or not Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity could be less than 3oC. The bottom line was that the best estimate for ECS is about 3oC. Given that … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Global warming, Research, Science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 34 Comments