Tag Archives: ECS

Climate sensitivity and decadal temperature variability

There are some who argue that natural/internal variability can play a role in driving long-term warming, and – hence – could explain a substantial fraction of recent warming. This, however, creates a bit of a paradox; if the system responds … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Research, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , | 80 Comments

An attempt to do a Bayesian estimate of climate sensitivity

Update (02/04/2019): I’ve updated this in a new post. The updated result suggests a slightly lower climate sensitivity and a narrower range. The main difference is – I think – how I was handling the forcing uncertainty. In this post, … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Research | Tagged , , , , , , , | 50 Comments

New ocean heat content analysis

I wanted to just briefly mention the recent paper that [quantifies] ocean heat uptake from changes in atmospheric O2 and CO2 composition, by Resplandy et al. The interesting thing about this paper is that it uses proxies to infer the … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Policy, Research | Tagged , , , , , , | 183 Comments

The time evolution of climate sensitivity

I wanted to just post this figure from a new paper by Philip Goodwin called On the time evolution of climate sensitivity and future warming. It uses a modified energy balance approach in which multiple climate feedbacks evolve independently over … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Research | Tagged , , , | 228 Comments

The ECS is probably above 2K

I have quite a large conference starting tomorrow, so will probably be too busy to write. To keep things ticking over I thought I would post this seminar given by Andrew Dessler, discussing his recent work on constraining the Equilibrium … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Research | Tagged , , | 110 Comments

Lewis and Curry, again

I should probably say something about the new Lewis & Curry paper. It’s mostly an update to their earlier paper that I’ve discussed before. Bottom line; there are reasons to be cautious. The basic formalism is that one can use … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Judith Curry, Research, Science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 688 Comments

ECS from a modified energy balance approach

Andrew Dessler’s paper (technically Dessler and Forster), which he mentioned in this comment, has now appeared as a pre-print. Essentially, they use an energy balance approach to estimate equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), but – as I mentioned in this post … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Research, Science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , , | 144 Comments