Tag Archives: ECS

Some more about Hansen et al.

Posted on January 15, 2023 by ...and Then There's Physics

I thought I would expand a bit on my previous post about the recent Hansen et al. paper. Something I did like is that the paper highlighted that there is no known paleoclimate analogues for the current anthropogenic forcing pathway. … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Research | Tagged , , , | 20 Comments

Hansen’s 10C

Posted on January 11, 2023 by ...and Then There's Physics

A recent comment asked about James Hansen’s recent paper in which it is claimed that equilibrium global warming for today’s GHG level is 10°C. I’ve finally had a chance to look at it and I think I understand what is … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Research, Scientists | Tagged , , , , | 70 Comments

The Last Glacial Maximum

Posted on May 16, 2021 by ...and Then There's Physics

There’s an interesting paper by Seltzer et al. called [w]idespread six degrees Celsius cooling on land during the Last Glacial Maximum, which I became aware of through a Twitter thread by Werner Aeschbach. The reason it’s interesting is that it … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Research | Tagged , , , , , | 7 Comments

Climate sensitivity – narrowing the range

Posted on July 22, 2020 by ...and Then There's Physics

Since I’ve discussed climate sensitivity on a number of occasions, it seems worth highlighting the new paper that assesses climate sensitivity using multiple lines of evidence. The authors include many who will be familiar to my regular readers. The key … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Philosophy for Bloggers, Research, Science | Tagged , , , , , | 98 Comments

Can climate sensitivity be really high?

Posted on June 13, 2020 by ...and Then There's Physics

The answer to the question in my post title is – unfortunately – yes. The generally accepted likely range for equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is 2oC – 4.5oC. This doesn’t mean that it has to fall within this range, it … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Research, Science, The philosophy of science | Tagged , , , , | 36 Comments

Another CMIP6 climate sensitivity constraint

Posted on January 6, 2020 by ...and Then There's Physics

I thought I would follow up yesterday’s post with one that highlights another paper that looks at CMIP6 climate sensitivity. It’s a paper by Femke Nijsse, and colleagues, and considers [a]n emergent constraint on Transient Climate Response from simulated historical … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Philosophy for Bloggers, Research, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 139 Comments

Climate sensitivity in CMIP6 GCMs

Posted on January 5, 2020 by ...and Then There's Physics

Anyone who is aware of what’s going on in climate science should have heard that the latest generation of climate models, known as CMIP6, seem to be suggesting a somewhat higher climate sensitivity than suggested by the previous CMIP5 models. … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Gavin Schmidt, Research, Scientists, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , , | 63 Comments

Climate sensitivity and decadal temperature variability

Posted on July 28, 2019 by ...and Then There's Physics

There are some who argue that natural/internal variability can play a role in driving long-term warming, and – hence – could explain a substantial fraction of recent warming. This, however, creates a bit of a paradox; if the system responds … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Research, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , | 80 Comments

An attempt to do a Bayesian estimate of climate sensitivity

Posted on March 25, 2019 by ...and Then There's Physics

Update (02/04/2019): I’ve updated this in a new post. The updated result suggests a slightly lower climate sensitivity and a narrower range. The main difference is – I think – how I was handling the forcing uncertainty. In this post, … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Research | Tagged , , , , , , , | 50 Comments

New ocean heat content analysis

Posted on November 3, 2018 by ...and Then There's Physics

Update: (26/09/2019) This paper has now been retracted. The authors says Shortly after publication, arising from comments from Nicholas Lewis, we realized that our reported uncertainties were underestimated owing to our treatment of certain systematic errors as random errors. In … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Policy, Research | Tagged , , , , , , | 183 Comments