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Rachel Squirrel- What happened to the Green party?
- Elizabeth dancing the Highland Laddie
- Lost Loch Distillery and standing stones
- Getting out of bed for berry compote
- Pigeon rescue, St Andrews, Rufflets, and antique lecture notes
- Meet Howard the highland cow, crochet animal head
- Elizabeth, litterers, chocolate, Easter
- Books, knitting, daffodils, and diet
- Scotland’s new hate crime law
- A Mother’s Day lunch in Ballater
- Rabett Run
- Alex Tabarrock and Argumentum ad Flubberum
- Brian's new gig
- Something left unsaid about Koutsoyiannis et al.
- "A Left That Refuses to Condemn Mass Murder Is Doomed"
- Well, crud
- Don't trifle with judges, Montana edition
- Which Came First or Beyond Correlation
- Gasoline consumption, California and USA
- Sea level rise came first for the Vikings, now it's coming for you
- What do physicists want?
- HotWhopper
- The last 10 years are the hottest ever, yet deniers are still in denial
- Victor Venema, climate scientist, valued friend to many
- Email went down, now it's back
- We've got to get serious about climate, we've wasted too much time
- Alert for HotWhopper email subscribers to resubscribe
- Beware of internal conflicts, rivalries and toxic behaviour polluting climate action
- Where to from here?
- Everything climate disinformation from the climate conspiracy-theorists at WattsUpWithThat
- Rating climate science deniers to decide how/if to engage
- Greetings of the season, happy hols, stay safe
- Variable Variability
- One more reason I dislike linking climate change and extinction
- The 10th anniversary of the still unpublished Watts et al. (2012) manuscript
- New German Sovereign Tech Fund will fund open source digital infrastructure to avert the next log4j
- We launched a new group to promote the translation of the scientific literature
- The confusing politics behind John Stossel asking Are We Doomed?
- Antigen rapid tests much less effective for screening than previously thought according to top German virologist Drosten
- New paper: Spanish and German climatologists on how to remove errors from observed climate trends
- Yes, it makes sense not to have diner parties while the schools are still open. Think of it as a Corona contact budget.
- Science Feedback on Steroids
- The deleted chapter of the WMO Guidance on the homogenisation of climate station data
- RealClimate
- Unforced Variations: May 2024
- Much ado about acceleration
- Unforced variations: Apr 2024
- More solar shenanigans*
- Unforced variations: March 2024
- New study suggests the Atlantic overturning circulation AMOC “is on tipping course”
- Unforced variations: Feb 2024
- Spencer’s Shenanigans
- Not just another dot on the graph? Part II
- Not just another dot on the graph?
- Open Mind
- Climate denial crock of the week
- Are America’s Aquifers in Crisis?
- Are US Carmakers Toast? China’s EVs Sleek, Well Made, and Cheap
- Climate Crisis Animal Vid of the Week: Horses Rescued from Texas Flooding
- Michigan Attorney General: I’m Putting Together a Team
- PBS NewsHour: Next Step in E-Flight – Training Electric Aircraft Pilots
- Tornadoes Challenge Climate Science and Models
- States Moving to Hold Climate Criminals Accountable
- Nuclear’s Challenge as Renewables Surge
- Trump’s Pay for Play Proposition for Big Oil. Elect Me to Kill Clean Energy.
- Insurance Industry Looks at Convective Storm Losses
- robertscribbler
- OBX Wave Report July 6 — 1-2 Foot, Waves Likely to Build a Bit Friday and Saturday
- The OBX Wave Report July 5 — 1-2 Foot With Some Shark Bumps Reported
- OBX Wave Report July 4th — Celebrating Freedom in the 2 Foot Surf
- OBX Wave Report July 3 — 2 Foot, Clean, Hot Weather
- OBX Wave Report July 2 — 2-3 Foot With Little Barrels + Talking Climate Crisis
- OBX Wave Report June 30 — 2-4 Foot Friday For Future + Record Global Heat
- OBX Wave Report June 29 — Gorgeous Green 2-3 Footers With Light Northeast Winds
- OBX Wave Report June 28 — 2-3 Foot and Semi-Clean
- OBX Wave Report June 27 — 1-3 Foot and Cleaning Up Through Afternoon
- OBX Wave Report June 26 — 1-3 Foot and Choppy With Strong Southerly Winds
- Moyhu
- GISS April global temperature down by 0.07°C from March.
- April global surface TempLS down 0.004°C from March, but still warmest April in record.
- GISS March global temperature down by 0.05°C from February.
- March global surface TempLS down 0.11°C from February, but still warmest March in record.
- GISS February global temperature up by 0.22°C from January.
- February global surface TempLS up 0.163°C from January; warmest February in record.
- GISS January global temperature down by 0.14°C from December.
- January global surface TempLS down 0.165°C from December, but still warmest January in record.
- GISS December global temperature down by 0.06°C from November.
- Graphics to show magnitude of 2023 warming.
- Real Sceptic
- Choosing Alternative Medicine To Treat Cancer Is Deadly
- Why We Became Scientists: Dunderhead
- AGU Fall Meeting Day 1 – Education And Science Outreach
- San Francisco Meet Up & AGU Fall Meeting
- The Big Pharma Cancer Conspiracy
- Activity Trackers Aren’t A Weight Loss Miracle Cure
- Brexit: Emotions Trumped Facts During UK’s Referendum
- Devastating Reply To Richard Tol’s Nonsensus In Peer-Reviewed Journal
- How to hide most of China’s coal consumption
- Willie Soon’s Deliverables
- Musings on Quantitative Palaeoecology
- Resampling Assemblage Counts
- A demo targets plan for reproducible pipelines for Neotoma data
- Reproducibility of high resolution reconstruction – one year on
- Simplistic and Dangerous Models
- COVID-19, climate and the plague of preprints
- Erroneous information … was given
- Making a pollen diagram from Neotoma
- Count sums – the preprint
- Count-less chironomids?
- Tools for a reproducible manuscript
- James’s Empty Blog
- Vallance vs Vallance vs SAGE: Edmunds’ view
- Vallance vs Vallance vs SAGE: Letter to the UK Covid-19 Inquiry
- Vallance vs Vallance vs SAGE: Why does doubling time matter?
- Vallance vs Vallance vs SAGE: Introduction
- UK Covid-19 Inquiry: Module 2
- UK Covid-19 Inquiry
- Retired
- No comment necessary
- Chess
- BlueSkiesResearch.org.uk: EGU 2022 – how cold was the LGM (again)?
- More than just data
- EGU 2022: Back in person
- vEGU2021: A “zoom” into science
- Digital conferences – how might they work?
- EGU 2020: A “chatty” conference
- Post-processing paper background: Do we need new approaches in verification?
- Post-processing paper background: EMD and IQD? What is it about?
- Post-processing paper background: Why do we need verification with uncertain observations?
- Post-processing paper background: Why does sub-sampling work?
- Post-processing paper background: What is sub-sampling?
- Background to “Seasonal statistical-dynamical prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation by probabilistic post-processing and its evaluation”
- Mallemaroking
- A comment piece on the SROCC
- Hudson Bay is breaking up early
- A trillion tonnes of ice on the move: Iceberg A68A
- Venta Maersk and the Northern Sea Route
- North Water Polynya in Nares Strait is opening
- Iceberg A38 at South Georgia in 2004
- Iceberg A68: You can’t always get what you want
- The Weddell Polynya to 23 November 2017
- Antarctic sea ice November 2017
- Rydberg Peninsula polynya October 2017
- Symptons of the Universe
- Open Letter: We reject the absurd QS/THE World University Rankings
- University World Rankings: How Low Can We Go?
- How offensive is the UCU?
- Clarification from UKRI on salary deductions
- Stretched Beyond The Limits
- Quantum Mechanix
- Quantum Mechanics and Mystics: Who Wooed Whom?
- PhD opening in Nottingham Nanoscience Group: AI & Atoms
- AI vs A-level
- Music by Ch@ – the artist formerly known as Chat GPT
Tag Archives: ECS
Doubling down?
I wrote a post a little while ago commenting on a Sabine Hossenfelder video suggesting that she was now worried about climate change because the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) could be much higher than most estimates have suggested. I wasn’t … Continue reading
Some more about Hansen et al.
I thought I would expand a bit on my previous post about the recent Hansen et al. paper. Something I did like is that the paper highlighted that there is no known paleoclimate analogues for the current anthropogenic forcing pathway. … Continue reading
Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Research
Tagged ECS, James Hansen, Warming committment, Warming in the pipeline
20 Comments
Hansen’s 10C
A recent comment asked about James Hansen’s recent paper in which it is claimed that equilibrium global warming for today’s GHG level is 10°C. I’ve finally had a chance to look at it and I think I understand what is … Continue reading
Posted in Climate sensitivity, Research, Scientists
Tagged ECS, Equilibrium warming, ESS, GHG forcing, James Hansen
70 Comments
The Last Glacial Maximum
There’s an interesting paper by Seltzer et al. called [w]idespread six degrees Celsius cooling on land during the Last Glacial Maximum, which I became aware of through a Twitter thread by Werner Aeschbach. The reason it’s interesting is that it … Continue reading
Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Research
Tagged Alan Seltzer, ECS, Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity, LGM, nature, Werner Aeschbach
7 Comments
Climate sensitivity – narrowing the range
Since I’ve discussed climate sensitivity on a number of occasions, it seems worth highlighting the new paper that assesses climate sensitivity using multiple lines of evidence. The authors include many who will be familiar to my regular readers. The key … Continue reading
Can climate sensitivity be really high?
The answer to the question in my post title is – unfortunately – yes. The generally accepted likely range for equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is 2oC – 4.5oC. This doesn’t mean that it has to fall within this range, it … Continue reading
Another CMIP6 climate sensitivity constraint
I thought I would follow up yesterday’s post with one that highlights another paper that looks at CMIP6 climate sensitivity. It’s a paper by Femke Nijsse, and colleagues, and considers [a]n emergent constraint on Transient Climate Response from simulated historical … Continue reading
Climate sensitivity in CMIP6 GCMs
Anyone who is aware of what’s going on in climate science should have heard that the latest generation of climate models, known as CMIP6, seem to be suggesting a somewhat higher climate sensitivity than suggested by the previous CMIP5 models. … Continue reading
Climate sensitivity and decadal temperature variability
There are some who argue that natural/internal variability can play a role in driving long-term warming, and – hence – could explain a substantial fraction of recent warming. This, however, creates a bit of a paradox; if the system responds … Continue reading
An attempt to do a Bayesian estimate of climate sensitivity
Update (02/04/2019): I’ve updated this in a new post. The updated result suggests a slightly lower climate sensitivity and a narrower range. The main difference is – I think – how I was handling the forcing uncertainty. In this post, … Continue reading
Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Research
Tagged ECS, emcee, Laure Zanna, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC, Ocean heat content, Simple climate model, TCR
50 Comments
...and Then There's Physics 