Monthly Archives: July 2017

Beyond climate consensus

I’ve had a chance to read the recent Beyond Climate Consensus paper by Warren Pearce, Reiner Grundmann, and colleagues. I’ve only just realised that it cites my blog, which might be a first. The paper itself is a Commentary, rather … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, ClimateBall, Global warming, The philosophy of science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , | 221 Comments

TBH, I don’t really like consensus messaging either

Originally posted on …and Then There's Physics:
I might have to give Dan Kahan some credit. Even though I’m not convinced that consensus messaging is toxic and polarising in general, there are certainly circumstances in which it can be,…

Posted in advocacy, ClimateBall, Science, The philosophy of science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , | 8 Comments

I’m back….almost

Okay, I’m not quite back. I’m on the ferry from Coll to Oban (the picture is actually taken on the trip from Oban to Coll – the weather now is not that great). We’ve spent a week doing what I … Continue reading

Posted in Personal | Tagged , , , , , | 8 Comments

Off for a couple of weeks

I’m leaving for a meeting early tomorrow morning and then heading out on holiday as soon as I’m back, so posting – from me, at least – will probably be light for a couple of weeks. To be quite honest, … Continue reading

Posted in ClimateBall, Science, Scientists, Sound Science (tm) | Tagged , , | 25 Comments

Doomsday scenarios

There’s been a bit of a furore over an article called The Uninhabitable Earth by David Wallace-Wells. The goal was clearly to investigate some of the extreme scenarios, but – unfortunately – the article got a number of things wrong … Continue reading


Posted in Climate change, Global warming, Michael Mann, Policy, Science, Scientists | Tagged , , , | 248 Comments

Reconciling climate sensitivity estimates – part III, or IV?

I mentioned in a recent post that there was a new paper that claims to reconciles climate sensitivity estimates. The basic issue is that observationally-based climate sensitivity estimates have a range of about 1.5oC to about 3oC, while climate model … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Research, Science, The philosophy of science | Tagged , , , , , | 94 Comments

Proposing A Non-Cynical Red Team Exercise

(Guest posting by Michael Tobis. Opinions expressed here are mt’s only.) Some people who dismiss the climate change issue like to call it “the CAGW hypothesis” for “Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming”. The name is quadruply irritating, inasmuch as 1) a … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 272 Comments

Hawking is wrong

I guess the big alarmist news at the moment is that Stephen Hawking has been quoted as saying: Trump’s action could push the Earth over the brink, to become like Venus, with a temperature of two hundred and fifty degrees, … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, ClimateBall, Global warming, Greenhouse effect, Science | Tagged , , , , , | 64 Comments

Temperature targets

I realise Michael Tobis is planning a follow-up to his post, but I thought would quickly pen this post about temperature targets, for example the Paris target of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, IPCC, Policy, Politics, Science | Tagged , , , , , , | 39 Comments

The Only Way Not To Lose Is to Play

In Climateball, the only way to lose is not to play. Consequently the only way not to lose is to play. Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 158 Comments