Tag Archives: Energy balance models

Reconciling climate sensitivity estimates – part III, or IV?

I mentioned in a recent post that there was a new paper that claims to reconciles climate sensitivity estimates. The basic issue is that observationally-based climate sensitivity estimates have a range of about 1.5oC to about 3oC, while climate model … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Research, Science, The philosophy of science | Tagged , , , , , | 94 Comments

Climate sensitivity reconciled?

There’s a really interesting paper by Mark Richardson, Kevin Cowtan, Ed Hawkins, and Martin Stolpe called Reconciled climate response estimates from climate models and the energy budget of Earth. Ed already has post that explains it all very clearly, so … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Science | Tagged , , , , , , | 109 Comments

The TCR-to-ECS ratio

Something I’ve been interested in is whether or not the ratio between the Transient Climate Response (TCR) and the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) best estimates from most of Nic Lewis’s work makes sense. Typically his TCR best estimate is around … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Global warming, Science | Tagged , , , , , , | 78 Comments

Watt about Roger’s questions?

I haven’t done a Watt about post for quite some time, so thought I would repeat it just this once. Roger Pielke Sr has guest post on Watts Up With That claiming to present seven very inconvenient questions that Gavin … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Gavin Schmidt, Science, Watts Up With That | Tagged , , , , | 252 Comments

Some thoughts on internal variability

Given that there’s been some discussion about internal variability in my previous post, and because there seems to have been interest elsewhere, I thought I would post some thoughts. A paper I was reading recently is Internal variability of Earth’s … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ENSO, Global warming, IPCC, Michael Mann, Science | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 90 Comments

Black swans

Eli’s recent post about Black swans, and black cats, motivated me to look into what the whole Black Swan idea was all about. As I understand it, a Black Swan event is simply an unexpected event, that has a significant … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Science | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 84 Comments

Models don’t over-estimate warming?

I thought I might write about the new paper by Jochem Marotzke and Piers Forster called Forcing, feedback and internal variability in global temperature trends. It’s already been discussed in a Carbon Brief post called claims that climate models overestimate … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Science | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 729 Comments

A minimal model for climate sensitivity

I’ve written a number of times about energy balance models. I think these are nice ways to estimate effective climate sensitivity (both transient and equilibrium) but they are quite simple and do suffer from some issues. For example, they are … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Science | Tagged , , , , , , , | 76 Comments

Nonlinear feedbacks

I’ve written a number of posts about the energy balance models (EBMs) used by Nic Lewis and thought I might write one more (sorry SB 🙂 ). In a previous post, Victor asked what I thought the reasons were for … Continue reading

Posted in advocacy, Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Science | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 70 Comments

Lewis and Curry

Nic Lewis and Judith Curry have had a new paper published called The implications for climate sensitivity of AR5 forcing and heat uptake estimates. This seems to be pretty much the same as Otto et al. (2013), except with different … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, IPCC, Judith Curry, Science | Tagged , , , , , , , | 376 Comments