Category Archives: Research

Post-normal science

I’ve been reading a paper by Daniel Sarewitz, that was being highlighted by Jane Flegal on Twitter. The paper is called Of Cold Mice and Isotopes Or Should We Do Less Science? There’s quite a lot that could be said … Continue reading

Posted in Policy, Politics, Research, Science, Scientists, The philosophy of science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , | 125 Comments

Models and scenarios

I was following, or trying to, a Twitter discussion about models and scenarios. It was – I think – about models that forescast technology development, and you can find it here if you’re interested. I didn’t entirely follow it, but … Continue reading

Posted in economics, Research, Science | Tagged , , , | 14 Comments

An updated Bayesian climate sensitivity estimate

I thought I would update my Bayesian climate sensitivity estimate, given the comments I received (peer-review in action). Based on James’s comment, I’ve removed the noise term and am now using the aerosol forcing as the forcing uncertainty. Based on … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Research, Science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 40 Comments

An attempt to do a Bayesian estimate of climate sensitivity

Update (02/04/2019): I’ve updated this in a new post. The updated result suggests a slightly lower climate sensitivity and a narrower range. The main difference is – I think – how I was handling the forcing uncertainty. In this post, … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Research | Tagged , , , , , , , | 50 Comments

A giant impact outside our Solar System

I’ve come down to listen to a General Interest seminar about climate change given by retired physics professor, but I’ve discovered it’s next week. I’ll have to wait to find out if it satisfies the stereotype. Since there is no … Continue reading

Posted in Personal, physicists, Research, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , | 32 Comments

The Hawkmoth Effect

I’ve been down to the University of Warwick to give a seminar, and was reading Eric Winsberg’s book on the train. Eric was interviewed by Willard for the previous post and his book is about Philosophy and Climate Science. I’m … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Research, Sound Science (tm), The philosophy of science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , , | 208 Comments