Category Archives: Research

A modelling manifesto?

There’s a recent Nature comment lead by Andrea Saltelli called Five ways to ensure that models serve society: a manifesto. Gavin Schmnidt has already posted a Twitter thread about it. I largerly agree with Gavin’s points and thought I would … Continue reading

Posted in ClimateBall, Philosophy for Bloggers, Research, Scientists, Sound Science (tm), The philosophy of science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , | 73 Comments

Can climate sensitivity be really high?

The answer to the question in my post title is – unfortunately – yes. The generally accepted likely range for equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is 2oC – 4.5oC. This doesn’t mean that it has to fall within this range, it … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Research, Science, The philosophy of science | Tagged , , , , | 36 Comments

The Imperial College code

The Imperial College code, the results from which are thought to have changed the UK government’s coronavirus policy, has been available for a while now on github. Since being made available, it’s received criticism from some quarters, as discussed by … Continue reading

Posted in Policy, Research, Scientists, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , | 609 Comments

Models

I have a feeling that our response to this pandemic may lead to some reflections on the role of scientific models in the decision making process. I would normally err on the side of defending scientific advisors, but I have … Continue reading

Posted in Philosophy for Bloggers, Research, Scientists, The philosophy of science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , | 461 Comments

A couple of highlights

Since I haven’t had much chance to write anything recently, I thought I would briefly advertise a couple of papers that may be of interest to my regular readers. One is by Clare Marie Flynn and Thorsten Mauritsen and is … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Research, Science | Tagged , , , , | 19 Comments

RCP8.5 – another update

In case anyone is interested, Zeke Hausfather and Glen Peters have a Nature comment about the whole RCP8.5 issue. Unfortunately, they used misleading in the title, which seems to have produced an unfortunate headline on a BBC article. Otherwise, Zeke … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, ClimateBall, Gavin Schmidt, Michael Mann, Research, Scientists, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , | 65 Comments

Zharkova et al.: an update

Last year I wrote a couple of posts about a paper by Valentina Zharkova and colleagues, which suggested that global warming was partly due to the Earth moving closer to the Sun as the Sun moves around the Solar System … Continue reading

Posted in Global warming, Philosophy for Bloggers, Research, Sound Science (tm), The philosophy of science | Tagged , , , , , | 77 Comments

Another CMIP6 climate sensitivity constraint

I thought I would follow up yesterday’s post with one that highlights another paper that looks at CMIP6 climate sensitivity. It’s a paper by Femke Nijsse, and colleagues, and considers [a]n emergent constraint on Transient Climate Response from simulated historical … Continue reading

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Philosophy for Bloggers, Research, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 139 Comments

Climate sensitivity in CMIP6 GCMs

Anyone who is aware of what’s going on in climate science should have heard that the latest generation of climate models, known as CMIP6, seem to be suggesting a somewhat higher climate sensitivity than suggested by the previous CMIP5 models. … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Gavin Schmidt, Research, Scientists, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , , , | 63 Comments

Methane

I’ve always been a little confused as to why so much attention is paid to methane emissions. It’s short-lived, so isn’t it maybe somewhat less important that CO2 emissions, which are long-lived? One reason it is quite prominent is because … Continue reading

Posted in Environmental change, Global warming, Policy, Research, Scientists | Tagged , , , , , | 241 Comments