Tag Archives: IPCC

Plausible emission scenarios

Posted on April 12, 2021 by ...and Then There's Physics

A paper by Roger Pielke Jr, Matthew Burgess and Justin Ritchie has been submitted that suggests that the most plausible 2005-2040 emission scenarios project less than 2.5oC of warming by 2100. It’s generated a bit of debate on social media, … Continue reading →

Posted in ClimateBall, Global warming, Policy, Roger Pielke Jr | Tagged , , , , , | 67 Comments

2025?

Posted on October 11, 2019 by ...and Then There's Physics

One of the demands from Extinction rebellion is that the [g]overnment must act now to halt biodiversity loss and reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2025. This has been criticised as being so unrealistic as to potentially damage … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Global warming, Policy, Politics | Tagged , , , , | 48 Comments

We have 12 years

Posted on January 9, 2019 by ...and Then There's Physics

Patrick Brown has a recent blog post about whether, or not, the IPCC claims that we have 12 years to avoid catastrophic global warming. As his post highlights, there are a number of problems with this claim. Firstly, the IPCC … Continue reading →

Posted in advocacy, Climate change, Philosophy for Bloggers, Policy, Scientists, The philosophy of science | Tagged , , , , , , | 31 Comments

Toys, pram, out!

Posted on April 9, 2017 by ...and Then There's Physics

It seems that Roger Pielke Jr is having a bit of a rant on Twitter about an interview Michael Mann gave about the recent Congressional Hearings. He accuses Michael Mann of lying about him and also suggests that he might … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, ClimateBall, Michael Mann, Roger Pielke Jr | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 20 Comments

Catastrophe, hoax, or just “Lukewarm”?

Posted on February 28, 2017 by ...and Then There's Physics

I thought I would post this video of a talk given by Tim Palmer. The basic message is that climate change is neither a hoax, going to be catastrophic, or going to be benign (Lukewarm). What climate science can (and … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, Global warming, IPCC, Research, Science | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 120 Comments

Oh no, not again

Posted on February 26, 2017 by ...and Then There's Physics

Somehow a paper arguing that the increase in atmospheric CO2 is mostly natural has managed to pass peer-review. Gavin Schmidt’s already covered it in a Realcimate post. Gavin Cawley’s paper is, in a sense, a pre-emptive response to this new … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, ClimateBall, IPCC, Pseudoscience, Research | Tagged , , , , , , , | 70 Comments

Judith Curry confuses laypeople about climate models

Posted on February 21, 2017 by ...and Then There's Physics

Judith Curry has written a report for the Global Warming Policy Foundation called Climate Models for the layman. As you can imagine, the key conclusions is that climate models are not fit for the purpose of justifying political policies to … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Judith Curry, Science, The scientific method | Tagged , , , , , | 110 Comments

Sensitivity to cumulative emissions

Posted on December 2, 2015 by ...and Then There's Physics

Something I’ve mentioned here quite regularly is the idea that warming depends roughly linearly on cumulative (total) emissions. This is slightly counter intuitive, in that warming depends logarithmically on atmospheric CO2 concentration. The reason is essentially that it incorporates climate … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate sensitivity, ClimateBall, Global warming, IPCC, Judith Curry, Science | Tagged , , , , , , | 202 Comments

Clarity of meaning

Posted on October 23, 2015 by ...and Then There's Physics

A while ago I discussed a Nature Climate Change article by Greg Hollin and Warren Pearce called Tension between scientific certainty and meaning complicates communication of IPCC reports. A number of us submitted a response, which appeared today together with … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, ClimateBall, IPCC, Science | Tagged , , , , , , , | 50 Comments

“very likely” versus “extremely likely”

Posted on August 18, 2015 by ...and Then There's Physics

In IPCC land “very likely” means 90% – 100% probability, while extremely likely means 95% – 100% probability. In light of that, I was wondering if anyone had any insights as to why, in Chapter 10 of the IPCC’s WGI … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, ClimateBall, Global warming, IPCC, Science | Tagged , , , , | 21 Comments