I have quite a large conference starting tomorrow, so will probably be too busy to write. To keep things ticking over I thought I would post this seminar given by Andrew Dessler, discussing his recent work on constraining the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS). I’ll note that JCH posted a comment about this yesterday, but I had already seen it.
The bottom line is essentially that we have strong reasons to think that the lower bound for ECS is probably above 2K, despite some recent work suggesting that it might be below 2K (i.e., we largely understand why this work gets that result and why it’s probably wrong, in the sense that the ECS is more likely to be above 2K, than below 2K). Essentially, this work suggests that the likely range (17% to 83%) for ECS is about 2.4K to 4.5K, with a median at 3.3K.