This is sort of a guest post by Patrick Brown. Patrick contacted me to ask if I’d be willing to highlight a video that he made to discuss a suggestion, by someone called Pat Frank, that ‘propagation of error calculations’ invalidate climate model projections. I first noticed this when Pat Frank had a guest post on Watts Up With That (WUWT) called Are climate modelers scientists (the irony of this title may become apparent). He also presented a poster at the 2013 AGU meeting, gave a talk at the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness meeting, he has a video that is linked to in Patrick Brown’s introduction below, and his ideas were then discussed in a recent magazine article titled A fatal flaw in climate models. Just for background, what he is suggesting is that there is a large cloud forcing error that should be propagated through the calculation and that then produces such a large uncertainty that climate model projections are completely useless. I won’t say any more, as Patrick’s video (below) explains it all. It’s maybe a bit long, but it covers quite a lot of material, explains things very nicely, and I found it a very worthwhile watch. Patrick Brown’s post starts now.
Do ‘propagation of error calculations’ invalidate climate model projectsions?
As a climate scientist I am often asked to comment on videos and writings that challenge mainstream views of climate science. Recently, I was asked for my thoughts on some claims made by Patrick Frank regarding ‘propagation of error’ calculations and climate models. I took a look at Dr. Frank’s claims and considered his arguments with an open mind. As I reviewed Dr. Frank’s analysis, however, I began to feel that there were some serious problems with his methodology that end up totally undermining its usefulness. I outline the issues that I have with Dr. Frank’s analysis in the video below.
Links: The same video on Patrick Brown’s blog.