I’m on a train heading to a meeting, and so, to move on from the whole Brexit saga, I thought I would briefly highlight this recent paper that provides an [Improved] estimate of Earth’s energy imbalance. It uses ocean heat content measurements from Argo floats, and corrects for the very deep ocean, land and atmosphere, and cryosphere warming. It also shows CERES satellite measurements, which have been corrected to agree with the mean of in situ estimates for the period 2005-2010.
The bottom line is that for the period 2005-2015, the net heat uptake rate was Wm-2. To put this into somce context, this is just over 1022J per year, which – if it all remained in the land/atmosphere – would warm the land/atmosphere at more then 1oC per year. Of course, it does not all heat the land/atmosphere, as most (> 90%) heats the oceans. However, this is still one of the key indicators that we are undergoing anthropogenic global warming (the climate system as a whole is continuing to accrue energy, even as we continue to warm).
The only other thing I was going to mention is that this doesn’t really change the Otto et al. (2013) energy balance estimates for the Effective Climate Sensitivity (~ 2oC), but does – I think – influence the Lewis & Curry (2015) estimates (~ 1.66oC) as they used heat uptake rates that were quite a bit lower than this newer estimate suggests. I think this also has implications for the TCR-to-ECS ratio, but I’ll leave it at that, as I have to get off the train in a short while.